Handicapping and Betting the 2010 November Nine

2 November 2010, Created By: Matthew Showell
Handicapping and Betting the 2010 November Nine

We’re less than seven days away from the final table of this year’s WSOP Main Event, meaning this time next week one of the 2010 November Nine will be a world champion.

Some people might say that only time can tell who that person will be. We’re here to tell you different. We will systematically examine each of the final nine to figure out exactly what’s going to happen this weekend.

Stack sizes, seating charts and in-depth analysis will reveal the true identity of this year’s world champion of poker. Either that or we’ll just make some stuff up, cross our fingers and hope that it comes true.

Note: 14 minutes and 46 seconds remain with blinds of 250,000/500,000 with 50,000 antes.

SEAT 1: Jason Senti
Hometown: St. Louis Park, MN (USA)
Age: 25
Chip Count: 7,625,000

Odds: +1600 to +1800

Despite the short stack we like the long odds on Jason Senti. What Senti lacks in chips he makes up for in experience.

Senti’s chances will be determined quickly, very quickly. He’s got an M of 6.4 which means he’s got just one move left, all-in. The good news is that Senti’s experience will keep him from panicking and allow him to find the best possible spot to get it in.

The bad news is that Senti’s going to need more than one double to get him out of the woods.

The Bottom Line: Jason Senti’s going off at super long odds for a reason; he’s going to have to get lucky to win this thing. That said we like the line and if he can get chips his experience will put him in a great spot.

Joseph Cheong
Ballin or Fallin.

SEAT 2: Joseph Cheong

Hometown: La Mirada, CA (USA)
Age: 24
Chip Count: 23,525,000

Odds: +500 to +750

Young but experienced, Joe Cheong brings an extremely aggressive style to this final table. During the final table bubble Cheong was super active and ended up losing a massive portion of his stack as a result.

It was John Dolan, directly to Cheong’s left, that did most of the damage. Unfortunately for Cheong the seating arrangement hasn’t changed. Cheong will have to be very aware of Dolan should he continue trying to run this table over.

Cheong’s played thousands of MTTs online and with a little help from the deck he’ll be a serious threat.

The Bottom Line: Cheong’s got a decent stack and a lot of experience. At +700 you’re getting a good price on someone who has a real chance at the win.


SEAT 3: John Dolan
Hometown: Bonita Springs, FL (USA)
Age: 24
Chip Count: 46,250,000

Odds: +375 to +450

When this tournament was ten-handed we got a great look at why John Dolan is such a successful tournament player. He chipped up in a big way and he did it all without showing down a single hand.

His experience is his biggest asset, and that’s saying a lot considering he’s got a massive stack. Dolan has great card-sense and seems to understand his opponents and their playing styles, two things that allowed him to pick up all those chips on the final table bubble.

The only thing not working in his favor is his seat, arguably the worst at the table. He’s got the biggest stack and the best player, respectively, in the two seats to his left.

The Bottom Line: Dolan’s got experience, skill and a big stack to go with it. The odds are right on the money at +400.


SEAT 4: Jonathan Duhamel
Hometown: Boucherville, Quebec (Canada)
Age: 22
Chip Count: 65,975,000

Odds: +250 to +275

Jon Duhamel enters the final table with a big chip lead, and the shortest odds on the win.

Along with the biggest stack he’s also got a pretty good seat. He’s got position on the two next biggest stacks, John Dolan and Joe Cheong, but will have to deal with a shortstacked Michael Mizrachi on his left.

We know from the ESPN broadcast that Duhamel is willing to put his chips at risk. He got the bulk of his stack in the now infamous hand against Matt Affleck in which he got it in on the turn with an open-ender and spiked it on the river to crack Affleck’s aces.

Based on what we’ve seen expect Duhamel to either run this table over or blow up and flame out early.

The Bottom Line: Even with the monster stack the odds are too short. Not since Jamie Gold has the chip leader going into the final table come out on top.


SEAT 5: Michael "The Grinder" Mizrachi
Hometown: Miami, FL (USA)
Age: 29
Chip Count: 14,450,000

Odds: +500 to +800

Michael Mizrachi may not have much of a stack but he’s definitely headlining this final table. As you can see by the odds the bookmakers aren’t overlooking the Grinder’s experience, or the punters’ proclivity for ignoring the numbers and betting with their hearts.

Mizrachi’s sitting with an M of 12 which gives him  enough ammo to three-bet shove effectively on Duhamel, who is sitting directly on Grinder’s right and will be opening a lot of pots.

Mizrachi’s goal will be to get himself chips quickly so he can bring his experience and superior skills into play. Expect him to get all-in preflop early in this final table. If he can score the double he’s got a great chance at finishing in one of the top positions.

The Bottom Line: Mizrachi is a dangerous player and the bookmakers know it. Make sure you're getting close to +800. +500 is short considering his stack.


Matthew Jarvis
One of two Canucks at this final table.

SEAT 6: Matthew Jarvis
Hometown: Surrey, BC (Canada)
Age: 25  
Chip Count: 16,700,000

Odds: +1000 to +1050

Matt Jarvis is one of the less experienced players and the odds reflect this fact. Jarvis has more chips but, depending on where you bet, he’s going off at almost half the price of Michael Mizrachi.

Similar to everyone with a short to mid-sized stack Jarvis’s chances will depend on getting chips early. He’s got a three-bet shoving sized stack and he’ll have plenty of opportunity since he’s sitting a few seats to the left of the two biggest stacks.

Jarvis hasn’t been at a major final table before which could be a big factor. Jarvis will have to pick his spots perfectly to win this thing and that's going to take patienice. If he can keep his cool, and pick up a few hands, Matt Jarvis could become the first Canadian world champion.

The Bottom Line: The +1000 line on Jarvis is accurate but given stack size and level of experience it’s definitely a long shot.


SEAT 7: John Racener
Hometown: Port Richey, FL (USA)
Age: 24
Chip Count: 19,050,000

Odds: +750 to +760

After Michael Mizrachi, John Racener has the most live tournament experience at this final table. He’s been to WSOP final tables before, he’s won major tournaments and he’s been a successful pro for a number of years.

All of these things drive his price up.

Racener likes to play a lot of pots but with the two shortest stacks just a few seats to his right he’ll have to limit his opens against the three-bet shoves his opponents will be looking to execute.

The Bottom Line: Racener's got enough ammo to do some real damage and enough skill to close should he get the opportunity. We love him at +750.


SEAT 8: Filippo Candio
Hometown: Cagliari, Sardinia (Italy)
Age: 26
Chip Count: 16,400,000

Odds: +1000

The only European at the final table, Filippo Candio is this year’s dark horse. Typical of Italians at poker tables worldwide, Candio is seriously unpredictable.

Generally that style will lead to one of two things: A giant stack or a quick exit. The fact that Candio has been a working pro for a number of years should make the former a little more likely.

Candio has the two shortest stacks to his immediate left which means he’ll have to tighten up his opens, something the Italian in him might have a big problem with. Like all the stacks in his neighborhood, his chances at a win will be determined in the first level or two.

The Bottom Line: We like Candio at +1000. Fewer people will bet on him which allows the bookmakers to be a little more generous with the line. Also the fact that he’s Italian may lead to his opponents underestimating him at the final table.


SEAT 9: Cuong "Soi" Nguyen
Hometown: Santa Ana, CA (USA)
Age: 37
Chip Count: 9,650,000

Odds: +1400 to +2000

Soi Nguyen has his work cut out for him at this final table. With the second shortest stack, and by far the least experience, Nguyen is going to have to get lucky to win this thing.

What some people might forget, however, is that the Soi Nguyen we see this November may be completely different than the Soi Nguyen we met in July. He’s had almost four months to prepare and with friends like Nam Le and JC Tran he definitely had the means to do so.

The Bottom Line: +2000 might seem like an amazing price but in all honesty we don’t see Nguyen taking this thing down even one out of twenty times. Even if he can get his hands on chips early there’s just too much talent at this final table.

If you're interested in using this info to make some money check out Bodog right here and Betfair right here. They both offer action on all nine final table players!

To hear what the November Nine players have to say about their own chances check out our news story Setting the Line on the November Nine!



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cam 2010-11-04 21:33:21

You're a sucker to bet on Duhamel. Dude will be out in 5-9

Joey Jo Jo 2010-11-03 18:21:08

lol at Nguyen not taking down one in twenty, any random donk would win more ...

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