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Thursday, June 26, 2008

Calculating Pot Odds: A Beginner's Guide

By Daniel Skolovy

 (4 votes)
Juha Helppi
Understanding and acting on pot odds is critical to winning at poker.
Once you have learned how to quickly calculate your outs, it's time to learn how to calculate your pot odds.

Understanding and acting on pot odds is critical to winning at poker. You'll need to take pot odds into consideration when determining if it will be profitable to draw to your straight or flush - a decision you will make dozens of times in a single session.

When you're playing poker, you'll frequently encounter this scenario: Your opponent has a made hand and is betting, and you're in the pot with nothing but a draw.

When you're "drawing," it means you have four to a straight or four to a flush and are hoping a card on a later street will make you a winning hand. Learning to calculate your outs and odds will teach you when you can draw profitably and when it's time to just let your hand go.

Much like calculating your outs, calculating your pot odds sounds a lot more difficult than it is. With a little practice and a little seventh-grade math, you can master this concept fairly quickly.

An example:

This example uses Limit Hold'em because it simplifies things; however, in No-Limit exactly the same dynamic is at play.

Game is $1/$2 Limit Hold'em. You have AhKh on the button. It's folded to you on the button and you raise to $2.

The small and big blinds both call and you go three-handed to a flop of JsQc3h. The small blind bets $1 and the big blind calls.


With a little practice and a little seventh-grade math, you can master pot odds fairly quickly.

What odds are you getting?

Well, let's count the bets. Three players put $2 in before the flop. 3x$2=$6. On the flop the small blind bet $1 and the big blind called. $1+$1 = $2.

So $6 in pre-flop action and $2 in flop action = $8. Now you have to call $1 to win an $8 pot. You are getting 8-1 immediate odds on your call.

The odds that the pot are laying you are 8-1. Now how do you use this to your advantage?

Now you calculate your outs - an "out" card being one that can come on a later street that will give you a winning hand.

If you determine that your opponents both have a pair of queens with a bad kicker, you have six outs with your two overcards plus four tens to make a straight for a total of 10 outs.

Now you do some more (simple) math. You've seen five cards (your two hole cards plus the three board cards) out of 52. That means there are 47 cards left in the deck (52-5=47).

Ten of those 47 cards will give you the winning hand on the turn (47/10=4.7) so the odds of making your hand are 4.7-1.

For your call to be profitable on the flop, the pot would need to be laying you at least 4.7-1. As we've seen, the pot is actually laying you 8-1, so calling the bet on the flop would show you a positive expectation (EV) in the long run.

Implied Odds

You won't always be able to limit yourself to calling only when the immediate pot odds are correct. There are also circumstances in which you can profitably call without correct odds on the betting round you're currently involved in.


Stop chasing "feelings" and start chasing correct odds. Before you know it you'll be a winning player.

This is because of betting to come on later streets, with the initial bad odds overcome by making a big bet should you make your hand.

Implied odds are the implied bets of those later rounds. For more on how they factor into your decision at this stage, see the in-depth article on implied odds.

That's all there is to it. The math is elementary; anybody should be able to do it in their head. Simple calculations like this are really the essence of poker.

If you're only calling bets when the pot is laying you correct odds (or when you have good implied odds), in the long run you will be a profitable poker player.

So get into the habit of calculating pot odds. Do it for pots you are not involved in. If you can do it quickly and easily on the spot, the guesswork in your poker game will be eliminated.

Once you have overcome just chasing "a feeling" about your draw, start chasing with correct odds. Your whole poker game will turn around. Before you know it, you'll be a winning poker player.

More beginner strategy articles:

Article rating
 (4 votes)

Comment(s) on this article

Sean Lind Nov 8, 2008

Jim: You're absolutely correct. There is $55 in the pot, and you have to call $9.

$55/$9 = 6

The pot has six $9 bets in it, for your one $9 bet to call. so it's 6:1

Jim Nov 7, 2008

Ok i am not really sure on how to get the immediate odds. If there is a $55 pot and a bet of $9 to you would the pot odds be 6-1?

Sean Lind Nov 5, 2008

M - When calculating a higher number of outs the ratio goes down, how do you know whats profitable and whats not?

I'm not exactly sure what you're asking here, but I'll take a guess and try for an answer.

The more outs you have, the better your equity ratio becomes. If you have 2 outs, you're a 24-1 dog, if you have 8 outs you're only a 3-1 dog (is that what you mean by the ratio goes down?)

The choice becomes profitable when your odds ratio is higher than your equity ratio.

so, if you have 2 outs, and the bet is $10, there has to be 24-1 on that money, meaning the pot has to have 241+ in it for you to call.

If you have 8 outs, same bet. there has to be 3-1, meaning there has to be $31+ in the pot for you call.

Anything less is -EV anything more is +EV (this is ignoring all implied odds)

M Nov 4, 2008

Sorry i meant to say the ratio goes down, not the percentage.

M Nov 4, 2008

When calculating a higher number of outs the percent goes down, how do you know whats profitable and whats not?

Sean Lind Oct 30, 2008

Hey Angus, I get what you're saying, but there's a slight flaw in your logic.

the math getting to 4.7-1 is sound, no need to repeat that. But let's break it down.

Let's put the ratio at 4-1 just to make it easy here. We run the had five times, this means if the bet to us is $1, we put in $5.

If the pot odds are equal 4-1, than the pot each time we play is $5 ($4 in the pot to $1 we just bet). We lose 4 times and win once, bringing out net back to $0.

(Lose 4 times = -$4 the win only has $4 "other money" + our additional $1. Technically we're -$5 briefly before we win $5 to get even)

In order to make money, we need odds higher than the odds we have on making the hand. Thus in this scenario, we need better pot odds than 4.7-1 to make money.

make sense?

Angus Oct 30, 2008

Daniel,
I think you're wrong when you calculate the outs. You say

"Ten of those 47 cards will give you the winning hand on the turn (47/10=4.7) so the odds of making your hand are 4.7-1."

But if you're creating a ratio of not-wins to wins, surely you should use 37-10?

What you imply is that one should expect 1 win to every 4.7 not-wins, when one should actually expect 1 win to every 3.7 not-wins, or 1 win per 4.7 cards dealt.

Regards,
Angus


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