Loading...Calculating Pot Odds: A Beginner's Guide
Understanding and acting on pot odds is critical to winning at poker. Once you have learned how to quickly calculate your outs, it's time to learn how to calculate your pot odds.
Understanding and acting on pot odds is critical to winning at poker. You'll need to take pot odds into consideration when determining if it will be profitable to draw to your straight or flush - a decision you will make dozens of times in a single session.
When you're playing poker, you'll frequently encounter this scenario: Your opponent has a made hand and is betting, and you're in the pot with nothing but a draw.
When you're "drawing," it means you have four to a straight or four to a flush and are hoping a card on a later street will make you a winning hand. Learning to calculate your outs and odds will teach you when you can draw profitably and when it's time to just let your hand go.
Much like calculating your outs, calculating your pot odds sounds a lot more difficult than it is. With a little practice and a little seventh-grade math, you can master this concept fairly quickly.
An example:
This example uses Limit Hold'em because it simplifies things; however, in No-Limit exactly the same dynamic is at play.
Game is $1/$2 Limit Hold'em. You have A
K on the button. It's folded to you on the button and you raise to $2.
The small and big blinds both call and you go three-handed to a flop of J
Q
3. The small blind bets $1 and the big blind calls.
With a little practice and a little seventh-grade math, you can master pot odds fairly quickly.
What odds are you getting?
Well, let's count the bets. Three players put $2 in before the flop. 3x$2=$6. On the flop the small blind bet $1 and the big blind called. $1+$1 = $2.
So $6 in pre-flop action and $2 in flop action = $8. Now you have to call $1 to win an $8 pot. You are getting 8-1 immediate odds on your call.
The odds that the pot are laying you are 8-1. Now how do you use this to your advantage?
Now you calculate your outs - an "out" card being one that can come on a later street that will give you a winning hand.
If you determine that your opponents both have a pair of queens with a bad kicker, you have six outs with your two overcards plus four tens to make a straight for a total of 10 outs.
Now you do some more (simple) math. You've seen five cards (your two hole cards plus the three board cards) out of 52. That means there are 47 cards left in the deck (52-5=47).
Ten of those 47 cards will give you the winning hand on the turn, and 37 won't (37/10=3.7) so the odds of making your hand are 3.7-1.
For your call to be profitable on the flop, the pot would need to be laying you at least 3.7-1. As we've seen, the pot is actually laying you 8-1, so calling the bet on the flop would show you a positive expectation (EV) in the long run.
Implied Odds
You won't always be able to limit yourself to calling only when the immediate pot odds are correct. There are also circumstances in which you can profitably call without correct odds on the betting round you're currently involved in.
Stop chasing "feelings" and start chasing correct odds. Before you know it you'll be a winning player.
This is because of betting to come on later streets, with the initial bad odds overcome by making a big bet should you make your hand.
Implied odds are the implied bets of those later rounds. For more on how they factor into your decision at this stage, see the in-depth article on implied odds.
That's all there is to it. The math is elementary; anybody should be able to do it in their head. Simple calculations like this are really the essence of poker.
If you're only calling bets when the pot is laying you correct odds (or when you have good implied odds), in the long run you will be a profitable poker player.
So get into the habit of calculating pot odds. Do it for pots you are not involved in. If you can do it quickly and easily on the spot, the guesswork in your poker game will be eliminated.
Once you have overcome just chasing "a feeling" about your draw, start chasing with correct odds. Your whole poker game will turn around. Before you know it, you'll be a winning poker player.
More beginner strategy articles:
Comment(s) on this article
Angus Oct 30, 2008
Daniel,
I think you're wrong when you calculate the outs. You say
"Ten of those 47 cards will give you the winning hand on the turn (47/10=4.7) so the odds of making your hand are 4.7-1."
But if you're creating a ratio of not-wins to wins, surely you should use 37-10?
What you imply is that one should expect 1 win to every 4.7 not-wins, when one should actually expect 1 win to every 3.7 not-wins, or 1 win per 4.7 cards dealt.
Regards,
Angus
Sean Lind Oct 30, 2008
Hey Angus, I get what you're saying, but there's a slight flaw in your logic.
the math getting to 4.7-1 is sound, no need to repeat that. But let's break it down.
Let's put the ratio at 4-1 just to make it easy here. We run the had five times, this means if the bet to us is $1, we put in $5.
If the pot odds are equal 4-1, than the pot each time we play is $5 ($4 in the pot to $1 we just bet). We lose 4 times and win once, bringing out net back to $0.
(Lose 4 times = -$4 the win only has $4 "other money" + our additional $1. Technically we're -$5 briefly before we win $5 to get even)
In order to make money, we need odds higher than the odds we have on making the hand. Thus in this scenario, we need better pot odds than 4.7-1 to make money.
make sense?
M Nov 4, 2008
When calculating a higher number of outs the percent goes down, how do you know whats profitable and whats not?
M Nov 4, 2008
Sorry i meant to say the ratio goes down, not the percentage.
Sean Lind Nov 5, 2008
M - When calculating a higher number of outs the ratio goes down, how do you know whats profitable and whats not?
I'm not exactly sure what you're asking here, but I'll take a guess and try for an answer.
The more outs you have, the better your equity ratio becomes. If you have 2 outs, you're a 24-1 dog, if you have 8 outs you're only a 3-1 dog (is that what you mean by the ratio goes down?)
The choice becomes profitable when your odds ratio is higher than your equity ratio.
so, if you have 2 outs, and the bet is $10, there has to be 24-1 on that money, meaning the pot has to have 241+ in it for you to call.
If you have 8 outs, same bet. there has to be 3-1, meaning there has to be $31+ in the pot for you call.
Anything less is -EV anything more is +EV (this is ignoring all implied odds)
Jim Nov 7, 2008
Ok i am not really sure on how to get the immediate odds. If there is a $55 pot and a bet of $9 to you would the pot odds be 6-1?
Sean Lind Nov 8, 2008
Jim: You're absolutely correct. There is $55 in the pot, and you have to call $9.
$55/$9 = 6
The pot has six $9 bets in it, for your one $9 bet to call. so it's 6:1
Ambush66 Jan 10, 2009
In my humble opinion the above article does have some errors:
Fist:
On the flop there are 47 cards left
(52-2hole cards-3flop)... that's correct..
me: Ah Kh
Flop: Js, Qc, 3h
I have (inside) straight draw... 4xT = 4 outs
and two overcards for two overpair = 6 outs
(3xA, 3xK)
Total outs: 10 outs
47 cards left.... 10 of which complete your hand, 37 cards you don't complete your hand...
Odds against completing your hand:
37 cards to 10
or 3,7 to 1 (3,7:1)
Angus is correct.
Furtermore:
Before the flop:
Button(me)....--
sb $1
BB $ 2
fold
fold (other players)
pot $3
me raising with $2
(call BB with $2 + raise with $2)
pot $7
sb calls
($1 dollar to even with BB + $2 for the raise)
pot $10
BB calls
($2 dollar for the raise)
pot $12
Now the Flop
Then sb bets $1
BB calls $1
pot $14
calling a bet of $1 gives me
$14 : $1 = 14:1 pot odds
which is much larger than 3.7:1 hand odds
so calling is justified........
Sean Lind Jan 13, 2009
Hey Ambush66, I'm not exactly sure where you say the error is, but I noticed an error with your post.
"Now the Flop
Then sb bets $1
BB calls $1
pot $14"
The small blind has to bet $2, since that is the minimum bet (if it's limit, it's the only bet)
Not that it makes a huge difference, you're now having to call $2 for a pot of $16, giving you 8:1 on your money. But 8:1 is still a lot different than 14:1.
owen Feb 2, 2009
you said 7th grade math but im in 6th grade but i know 7th grade math
Magic Mar 24, 2009
Something is wrong in the math.
10 outs on the flop give you hand odds of 1.6:1. 10 outs imply ~ 38% (10*4 -2) chance of making your hand which implies (100/38 - 1 ) : 1 odds.
1.6:1 implies that you win 1 out of every 2.6 hands which is ~38%.
4.7:1 is way to low for a 10 out hand. Its closer to the odds you get for a gut shot. (~5:1)
Sean Lind Mar 25, 2009
Hey Magic, your math is absolutely correct, but you're arguing two different lines.
Your math is giving the odds with seeing two cards for the price of that one bet. If your opponent is going to make the same sized bet (in relation to the total pot) on the turn, you need 4.7-1 odds, since you have to hit with one card. (this is why it's the same as your gutshot numbers, 8 outs once is pretty much the same % as 4 outs twice).
Eric Apr 10, 2009
The example with the AKs, shouldn't the flush also be considered? There is 3 of hearts on the board and you have two hearts in your hand, so would it be 47/20?
Sean Lind Apr 11, 2009
Hey Eric, there is one heart on the board, and two in your hand. You'd have to catch runner-runner hearts for a flush. Although it's not perfectly accurate, you can count a backdoor draw like this as one out (the % of it hitting is almost the same as a 1 outer).
So you could say 47/11, but 47/20 would be very wrong.
Sean Lind May 15, 2009
NOTE: The article has been changed to fix an error (the 4.7-1 versus 3.7-1 error). This explains why you may be confused by the above comments .
-Sean Lind
Lynn Bates Aug 15, 2009
Sean If I'm setting here as a 5 to 1 dog, what pot odds would make this a good call. I realize 8 to 1 is good but what about something a little closer to 5 to1 Are there any odds over 5 to 1 ok to call. Say 5.2 to 1 etc. Or would you rather something bigger.
Thanks
Sean Lind Aug 17, 2009
Lynn,
As long as your pot odds exceed your equity disadvantage, you're good to call. So if you're a 5:1 dog, getting 5.2:1 on your money, it's a good call.
But, the closer the money is to the equity, the more variance you're going to have, since you're going to lose a lot of money, until you win the 5:1 shot to just barely turn a profit.
Typically you would want your odds to be well above your equity, as this will actually help you turn a profit.
Mat Aug 19, 2009
With 10 outs I calculate roughly a 20% chance to hit on the turn. I then see if im having to call more than 20% of the pot to see the turn, thus judging whether or not i have the odds to call. Is this good form, It seems allot easier than working out the ratios.
Sean Lind Aug 19, 2009
Mat,
What you just described is working out ratios, you're just doing it in your head.
20% is 4:1, same thing. If you want to calculate your call being X% of the pot to compare, that's the same as looking at the price as a ratio.
Same same, just ratios are easier, since if 4 people call the raise preflop, you're getting 4:1, no math required.
Mike Aug 28, 2009
.......from above........
"If you determine that your opponents both have a pair of queens with a bad kicker, you have six outs with your two overcards plus four tens to make a straight for a total of 10 outs.
Now you do some more (simple) math. You've seen five cards (your two hole cards plus the three board cards) out of 52. That means there are 47 cards left in the deck (52-5=47).
Ten of those 47 cards will give you the winning hand on the turn, and 37 won't (37/10=3.7) so the odds of making your hand are 3.7-1."
So what about the opponents cards? There are 43 cards left in the deck right?
kevin Oct 7, 2009
from above...
to add to the end comment made...surely that also depends on how many people have folded also (using your logic) and you have to count their cards too..
Leave a comment