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The Turn: Pot Odds for Fourth Street
By Sean Lind
Players who rely on memorized Hold'em odds and outs, rather than knowing where the numbers come from, limit themselves to playing a game exclusively based on "on the flop" odds.
Although these are arguably the most important odds (as the flop is commonly seen as the most important street in Hold'em), playing profitable poker means making the correct decisions on all streets. A brilliant call on the flop is completely negated by misplaying the turn.
For these players who have merely memorized the flop numbers, they common system they use for the turn is simply cutting the flop numbers in half. Although this will give you an idea of where to start from, it's not exactly a perfect solution.
Pot Odds
Pot odds can be a little bit tricky. Almost everyone knows that a flopped flush draw is about 2-1 to hit, meaning they need better than 2-1 odds to play the hand.
I commonly see players making the mistake of using the same equation for the turn. Let's run a hypothetical scenario:
I hear Liv Boeree is impressed by strong odds comprehension.
You're in a $2/$5 game on the button with $500 in your stack, holding A
K. Middle position makes a standard raise of $25. You call after it's folded to you; the blinds muck their hands, leading you heads-up to the flop.
Pot: $57
The flop comes 2 T 4
- you've flopped the nut-flush draw. For some reason, poker players seem to ignore odd dead money when calculating the pot size, meaning your opponent ignores the blinds, and views the pot as $50. They bet $50.
Pot: $107
You need to call $50 - you're getting just barely over 2-1 on your money. On straight pot odds you're pretty much breaking even here, but if you hit on the turn you feel you can make a few more bets, plus you might be good if you can hit an ace. You call.
Pot: $157
Turn: [2 T 4] [8
]
The pot is now starting to get large. You have $425 in your stack, making the pot over one-third of your stack. This is turning into a sizable pot for the table, with two streets of betting left to go.
Your opponent thinks you might be on the draw, or you have a set and are trapping. In case you're on the draw, they don't want to let you draw for free: they bet $100.
Pot: $257
Now from your experience playing with this player, you now know that they have AA or KK. But since you don't know which one, you can only count on hitting your flush for the win. You have to call $100 to see a river. What should you do?
Most beginner players here make an instant call. The bet is less than the pot, and the pot is going to be nice and large for them if you hit their nut draw.
You're getting 2.57-1 on your money, even better odds than you got on the flop, and it was an easy call on the flop. Seems like it should be an easy call on the turn as well.
In reality, you're 20% to win the pot here (assuming you're up against AA). You're a 4-1 dog, getting 2.5-1 on your money.
Your pot odds here are horrific. Your opponent would have had to bet around $50 for you to make a profitable call here.
An Interesting Brain Fart
Annette Obrestad uses her aggression to manipulate the odds.
The concept of drawing odds on the flop used to mess with my brain when I was a beginner. I used to wonder "How can it be correct to call with +2-1 odds on the flop when you know they will bet the turn again?"
When you think about it, in reality you're only seeing one card, not two, before you encounter another bet.
Your odds for hitting the flush on the turn specifically are about 20%. I figured it made more sense to need 4-1 odds to make a call even on a flop.
My beginner brainwaves are actually logically sound - in reality you are only seeing one card. The reason you can safely call getting better than 2-1 odds on the flop has to do with a whole bunch of factors beyond simple pot odds.
You have to consider implied odds, setups and live-pair draws. Most importantly, you have to consider how often the flop bet is a bluff, semi-bluff or c-bet.
In the majority of these situations, you are going to see a river without a bet on the turn, allowing you to draw two cards for your call. On top of that, you'll actually be ahead of many of these bluffs.
The concept behind this reasoning is this: You do not know what will happen on later streets, you must make the correct choice for the current action with the information you have.
It is simply not possible to play profitable poker on assumptions and hopes.
More tournament strategy articles:
Comment(s) on this article
Corey Nov 28, 2008
OK, Now I'm thorougly confused.
I have a pot odds chart on my wall. Let's stick with the assumption that we are drawing to a nut flush with 9 outs.
The chance of hitting the flush on the turn from the flop is 19.1%, or requiring pot odds of 4.2:1
The chance of hitting the flush on the river from the turn is 19.6%, requiring ot odds of 4.1:1
But the chance of hitting the flush by the RIVER from the flop is 35%, requiring pot odds of 1.96:1
I had been playing Limit HE assuming I needed about 4:1 when on the flop and drawing to the turn. I got this idea from Sklansky's Red book on limit poker.
Have I been playing incorrectly for all this time?
Does the situation differ in No Limit v. Limit?
Sean Lind Dec 2, 2008
In Limit poker you are absolutely correct in needing four to one to play a draw profitable (excluding extraordinary scenarios). The reason No-limit differs is the introduction of massive implied odds, and increased bluffing.
You'll see more free streets in No-Limit, and your implied odds can bail out your lack of pot odds in many situations. If you're playing a very tight, very aggressive player who'd going to bet pot on the turn if your flush doesn't hit, then shut down on the river when it does, you would absolutely need 4:1 odds to make a call.
Basically if you're losing 10BB a hand by playing draws without full pot odds in No-Limit, it can be worth it, and profitable, if 1/19 times you can win 200BB by the river.
Limit is almost exclusively a math game, while no limit can be played on intuition, expectations, feel and long shots. The increased bluffing and aggression in No-Limit means that after a flop bet, there is still a decent chance you actually have the best hand, or your opponent will shut down giving you a free card, or chance to bluff on the turn.
Rule of thumb, until you're in a situation where you can expect to win someones stack by hitting, only draw with 4:1 odds in No-Limit.
kunitico Dec 9, 2008
For example i have a huge read on my oponent and i know for sure he is on the flush draw.
If i bet $50 on a $57 pot, knowing that if he hits his draw on the turn i will let got my hand, in that case the fifty bucks bet it will be correct cause your not giving any implied odds.
That way i can manipulate the pot, and make him think that he is calling profitable.
is that correct?
I hope you understand cause my english it´s a little rusty
Sean Lind Dec 9, 2008
kunitico: You're correct. Ideally you would want to make your opponent think that they have implied odds, when they actually don't.
Meaning you will get your opponents to call without pot odds, and whey they hit you fold. This will cause more players to chase against you, but should yield great profit in the long run.
mseng Jan 14, 2009
I am also confused with the answer you gave to Corey on 02EC08. You said that on a Limit HE, when you have flopped a flush draw, you have to get odds of 4-1 in order to bet. So, to put this in numbers:
Suppose there are $20 in the pot, we are on the flop and my opponent bets $10. I am on a flush-draw, meaning that i have a 35% chance of ending up with a flush. If i call the immediate odds I get are 3-1, so this, combined with the 35% probability of ending with a flush, gives a +ve expected value. Why do you advise us to fold?
Thanks in advance.
Sean Lind Jan 15, 2009
mseng:
the 4-1 odds are for only one card.
If you're playing $5-$10 Limit, and you go to the flop heads up big blind vs small blind, the pot is $10.
You flop a flush draw, the small blind bets out. Pot $15, you're getting 3-1 on your money. If you call that planning to go to the river, and small blind bets again on the turn, you're paying $10 into a $30 pot, still 3-1.
The odds on the flop of making your flush by the river will make you money if you're getting 3-1 on the flop, as long as you're paying to see two cards.
Once your opponent bets again on the turn, you're now having to pay 3-1 again, when your odds of hitting a flush on the river are just under 20%, or 4-1.
By calling a draw with 3-1 on the flop heads up, knowing that your opponent will bet, you're getting the worst of the odds.
Add another player into the mix, and now you're doing just fine.
mseng Jan 16, 2009
1) Let’s say that you flop a flush draw, the small blind bets out. Pot $15, you're getting 3-1 on your money. Assume that your opponent will always be betting on the turn. Let’s call this the “starting position”. According to what you wrote, you must fold. So, following your strategy, you will have zero gain/loss.
Now assume that I call the bet, and if the turn does not give me the card I want, I fold. Then, 4 out of 5 times I will be folding, giving me a loss of $20. However, the one time I will get my card, I will win: $10 (pre-flop pot) + $5 (my opponent’s flop bet) + $10 (my opponent’s turn bet) + probably $10 on the river = $35. If we take out the $20 lost in previous hands, it gives us a profit of $15 (even if my opponent does not bet on the river, I will still make a $5 profit).
So, starting from the starting position, the first strategy gives zero profit, while the second gives a profit of at least $5.
Please advise.
2) The second comment I want to make: Assume that there are 3 on the table, and the pot is $15. You are on the button, and you flop a flush draw. The SB folds and the BB bets $5. Then, you are getting odds of 4-1, so according to your strategy you bet. Then, if the BB bets again on the turn, there will be $35 in the pot, and you will have to bet $10 to get $35, ie odds of 3.5-1 for a chance of approx. 20%, so again you are not getting the right odds, so again you have to fold at the flop.
As before, i would appreciate your comments.
Thanks.
Sean Lind Jan 17, 2009
mseng: I think I've seen the light in two errors I was making. One, for some reason I kept including blinds with calculations, obviously a mistake. And two, your odds of hitting a flush are roughly 33%, or 2-1, meaning getting 3-1 odds on the flop gives you one half a bet above what you need to make money, while on the turn you're 4-1 to make the flush, getting 3-1 odds. So you're missing one full bet in those odds, but add the half a bet surplus from the flop, you're missing 0.5 bets, which is made up by the dead money in the blinds. half a bet = $5, so you're -$5, plus blinds ($5 + $5) and you make $5.
You make $15 if you get $10 after you hit on the river.
Thanks for setting me straight. Old dogs can learn new tricks it seems.
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