In 2020 PokerStars hosted the EPT for the first time online. The main event with a buy-in of $5,200 saw a massive field of over 1,300 players and a prize pool of more than $6.5 Million.
We wanted to know how a professional poker player approaches those tournaments and what aspects he thinks about when he plays certain hands. Seasoned poker pro Jesper Hougaard agreed to take us through his pivotal hands from this tournament and explain his thought process in detail, giving insight into how poker tournament strategies have evolved in the year 2020 - 2024.
Hands covered:
- Hand #1: Eights versus a recreational player
- Hand #2: A reg player tries to bluff
- Bonus: Almost tripling up with a straight flush
- Hand #3: Bet Sizes are everything
- Hand #4: A compounded mistake
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About Jesper Hougaard
Jesper “KipsterDK” Hougaard is a renowned PLO specialist and nowadays foremost a cash game player. But he’s also an accomplished Hold’em Player and has had a lot of success at the live and online tournament tables. He has won two WSOP Bracelets and was the first player to win the PokerStars Sunday Million twice back in 2008 and 2009.
Jesper did not make it into the money at the PokerStars EPT Online and the four hands he dissects for us below are from the early levels of the tournament. The hands might not be as glamorous as some spectacular final table hands but they show how tiny details often alter the course of a hand (and an entire tournament) drastically.
From here on we let Jesper take it away:
Hand #1: 8-8 against a recreational player
The first meaningful hand comes along in the second level where I 3-bet pockets 8s in the small blind and play a big pot against a seemingly recreational player.
- Preflop
Blinds: 600 / 1,200 Ante 150
CO: 148,069
Hero (SB): 259,049 -
8
8
8
8
Preflop: fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 3,400, fold, Hero raises to 12,600, fold, CO calls
Why I want to play against the cut-off
The guy in the cut-off is certainly a recreational player. This is very early in tournament. I haven’t seen that much of him, but I can see already that his *VPIP is very high. He’s definitely the guy I want to get involved with and I want to escalate pots with him. Because he’s going to make a lot more post-flop mistakes than the average player in the field.
*VPIP - (average total percent of times the opponent puts money into the pot preflop – see How to read poker stats)
Why I reraise preflop
He opens in the cut-off for a bit more than a min raise and with Eights in the small blind it’s a pretty mandatory 3-bet. Calling and *set-mining is bad out of position. On the button I would have been more inclined to call against this guy. But in the small blind it’s better to take the initiative.
*Set-Mining means calling with a small or medium pocket pair in hopes of hitting a set.
How much to reraise preflop
I go for a 3.5x reraise which is pretty standard. I know that people who work with poker solvers advocate going even bigger with their 3-bets in this situation. With 3-bets out of position people make it 4x and even a bit more when they have deep stacks. The reason is they want to discourage calling ranges to continue. It’s typically better to just win the hand right there and then. I made it a little bit less because I don’t mind taking a flop against this guy. Even out of position because he’s the guy we want to play hands with.
- Flop
Flop: (27,600) -
K
K
6
6
4
4
Hero checks, CO bets 10,800, Hero calls
Why I check the flop
If I start betting this K-6-4 flop I will be inflating the pot unnecessarily. If I bet here, I’m not going to get much value out of anything. He might call with a hands like Ace-high, but I block hands like 8-7-suited that might continue. It’s better to check and let him bluff. If it goes check-check I can still get one value-bet in later along the way. It turned out, he bet. With this bet I have a mandatory call here. It is too weak to check-fold Eights on this board.
- Turn
Turn: (49,200) -
K
K
6
6
4
4
9
9
Hero checks, CO bets 26,400, Hero calls
Why I call again on the turn
The Nine on the turn shouldn’t really change anything. My opponent is not supposed to have a Nine in his hand. He can have hands like K-Q or K-J and the occasional A-K that decided not to 4-bet preflop. Those are the main hands that he’d value-bet twice. There are only a few sets – Sixes and Fours – in his range. Should he have called preflop with worse Kings, like K-T-suited he might find a check on this turn. Meaning, it’s a pretty narrow range that value bets the flop and the turn. Against some guys you might consider check-folding the turn, but against this player and such a narrow value range, I can continue and re-evaluate on the river.
*Value Bet - Betting because you expect to have better equity than your opponent - you expect them to call.
Is a recreational player bluffing the turn often enough?
Recreational players come in a lot of different shapes and sizes. This guy is an aggressive recreational player. The reason I want to continue on the turn is that he doesn’t have many value hands that he’s happy to go three or even two streets with. Yes, there’s the occasional A-K and K-Q, K-J or a set that he’s willing to value bet twice. All the other value hands, like a weaker King check the turn. But every time he picks up diamonds he continues as a bluff and he might continue Broadway hands like Q-T. In general, against players of this type I have to give them a wider range and assume they don’t know exactly what they’re doing.
What is my plan for the river?
If my opponent jams on the river I have to fold. If he wants to *triple-barrel a complete air ball I congratulate him. But there are not many people that do that in those kinds of tournaments. He still has close to half his starting stack and it would be suicidal if he decided to go for a big bluff on the river. I’m banking on him checking back the river if he misses.
*Make a third consecutive bet with no value hand - a big bluff basically
- River
River: (102,000) -
K
K
6
6
4
4
9
9
J
J
Hero checks, CO checks
The river is a bad card
The Jack on the river is obviously a bad card. A lot of the hands he semi-bluffed with, like Q-T or J-T or
- Showdown
CO shows
A
A
J
J
and wins 102,000
Hand #2: Let him bluff or seal the deal?
The next big hand I play in the 3rd level against an aggressive regular:
- Preflop
Blinds: 800 / 1,600 Ante 200
BU: 346,127
Hero (SB): 199,910 -
A
A
Q
Q
Preflop: fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BU raises to 3,200, Hero raises to 13,760, fold, BU calls
Playing against a reg
Preflop is just very standard. The button opens and I have a massive hand with Ace-Queen-suited in the Small Blind. My read on the Button (Christian 'WATnlos' Rudolph) is that he’s a very loose and aggressive reg. He plays very many hands and is almost spewy aggro. With Ace-Queen I have a mandatory reraise and make it roughly 4x.
- Flop
Flop: (30,720) -
Q
Q
9
9
4
4
Hero bets 16,000, BU calls
What hands would I bet with on this flop?
This is obviously a really good flop for me. On this draw heavy board I will always have a very high *c-bet frequency. I would bet with all my value hands, which are Aces, Kings, Queens, Ace-Queen or King-Queen. This means I also have to find enough bluffs to c-bet with on this flop. For example, with King-Jack or Jack-Ten I’d always be betting here. That means I will be betting here with a lot of semi-bluffs. When I flop this good, I think betting half the pot is a reasonable way to start the hand.
*C-bet frequency - How often you're making a continuation bet
- Turn
Turn: (62,720) -
Q
Q
9
9
4
4
7
7
Hero checks, BU bets 38,400, Hero raises to 169,950 (all-in)
I decided to check and my opponent bet 60% of the pot. I was really unsure of whether to *jam or to call. This is the important spot in this hand.
*Jam or Shove - Go all-in and bet your entire chip stack
Why the check-raise all-in on the turn is problematic
If I go all-in, I’m never in good shape when my opponent calls me. Maybe there is the occasional King-Queen with the
GTO (Game Theory Optimal) refers to the best method of play in a situation where you're unexploitable
Why I check-raise regardless
There is merit to my check-raise. With my all-in I avoid putting myself in a tricky spot on the river if the river comes for example Ten, Jack or a Spade. There are a lot of cards on the river – between 30-40% – that are going to be very ugly for me. It might sound weird, but check-raising all-in on the turn is the save play. Because that way I avoid playing a lot of tough rivers out of position against a loose-aggressive player. It’s also a way to deny hands with one Spade their equity. For example, a hand like Jack-Ten or Nine-Eight with a single spade has a lot of equity against me. And my opponent will feel inclined to bluff those on the turn, but cannot profitably call an all-in.
On the other hand, once I call this turn, I've basically told my opponent I have Ace-Queen or better. If I call and the board bricks – let’s say it comes 4 or 7 – my opponent is not too likely to continue bluffing.
There is one thing that this hand boils down to: denying my opponent equity with his semi bluffs versus letting him bluff on the river. I could be persuaded otherwise, but overall, I think there is more merit in denying him equity by going all-in than in allowing him to bluff on the river.
- Showdown
BU folds, Hero wins 101,120
Interlude: Tripling up with a Straight Flush (almost)
A couple hands later I triple up with a straight flush. Or at least I would have if the players had played how they are supposed to play.
- Preflop
Blinds: 800 / 1,600 Ante 200UTG: 147,158
Hero (MP): 470,670 -
10
10
9
9
BB: 264,528
Preflop: UTG raises to 3,200, fold, Hero calls, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to 17,600, UTG raises to 41,600, Hero folds, BB calls
The recreational player that I played hand #1 from above with opens from UTG. He still is the guy I want to get involved with and Ten-Nine-suited is very playable. But we get squeezed by the big blind and the recreational player four-bets. Obviously, I cannot continue now against a four-bet and have to fold.
- Postflop
Flop: (88,600) -
8
8
7
7
6
6
BB checks, UTG bets 105,358 (all-in), BB calls
Turn: (299,316) -
J
J
River: (299,316) -
6
6
UTG shows
8
8
7
7
BB shows
9
9
9
9
- wins 299,316
I would have flopped the absolute world
Sometimes you flop the world but no other player has anything so you wouldn’t get stacks in. But with the two specific hands they have here, we might have gotten all-in 3-way on the flop. And just to make matters worse, I would have turned a straight-flush.
If the recreational player had just called the 3-bet before the flop, I definitely would have continued as well. And given his stack size, he should probably just fold to the 3-bet with Eight-Seven-suited. If he decides to continue, 4-betting is pretty bad, and he should just call. This just goes to show that had the recreational player done what he is supposed to do, I would have at least doubled up, maybe even more.
Hand #3: Bet sizes are everything
This hand is godawful. I had a technical issue and came back late from a break. My time bank was gone. Especially on the turn I end up panicking a little bit.
- Preflop
Blinds: 1,250 / 2,500 Ante 325
BU: 510,869
Hero (BB): 248,447 -
A
A
J
J
Preflop: fold, fold, fold, fold, BU raises to 7,500, fold, Hero raises to 30,000, BU calls
Call or 3-bet with Ace-Jack in the Big Blind?
After the button opens, I can do both in the big blind – call or raise. I think 3-betting is standard as I am pushing equity against the range my opponent opens on the button with.
Once in a while it’s also okay to flat Ace-Jack and have a big Ace in your range when the board comes Ace-high. The player on the button will represent such a board strongly and your hand can withstand a lot of heat.
This time I decided to 3-bet and out of position my 3-bet is larger. I specifically made it 4 times the size of the initial raise.
- Flop
Flop: (63,850) -
9
9
5
5
3
3
Hero bets 43,500, BU calls
Betting this flop is superior
On the flop I have a *stack to pot ratio of 3. I don’t think this flop plays very well as a check-call and betting here is superior. In my range are all the overpairs and on a 9-5-3-flop there are not many hands in my opponent’s range that he’s comfortable stacking off with.
*Stack to pot ratio is your stack amount in relation to the pot amount. In this example, having a ratio of 3 means my stack is three times the pot amount.
Betting that much was a mistake
But I think I made a mistake with my bet sizing on the flop. I went for a bet of two thirds the size of the pot instead of sizing down. By sizing down and going for one third instead of two thirds I gain the advantage of being able to barrel off over multiple streets without committing too much of my stack. By betting this much on the flop I’m representing Tens or Jacks. Hands that want to bring the stack to pot ratio down so that I can shove the turn or at least take away the decisions on the turn.
My opponent does not have very many hands in his range that he loves to stack off with over two streets. However, a bet sizing of 20,000 on the flop bloats the pot less, leaves the stack to pot ratio higher and makes it much cheaper to continue with a barrel on the turn. If I had Aces, Kings or Queens I’d definitely go for the small size.
I don’t think my bet sizing is very good and now that I analyze it, this is the hand that I played the worst in the whole tournament. A smaller sizing on the flop would have created a completely different situation for the turn. Instead of a stack to pot ratio of 1.2 on the turn I could have had a ratio of 2 which would have allowed me to fire a barrel without decimating my stack.
- Turn
Turn: (150,850) -
9
9
5
5
3
3
Q
Q
Hero bets 75,000, BU raises to 435,020 (all-in), Hero foldsBU wins 225,850
What hands does my opponent call the flop with?
My opponent calls my flop bet with a lot of hands. His range consists of Fours, Sixes through Eights, and hands like
What can I represent on the turn?
The
Betting the turn is problematic
The fact that the queen looks better for my range than for his, sucked me into betting the turn. By betting on the turn, I can put a lot of pressure on hands like small pairs. But I don’t block any clubs. It would be better to have a club in my hand as this would reduce the number of hands my opponent can continue with.
With hands like sets or two clubs – for example
I’m in this really awkward spot because the stack to pot ratio is just a little bit over 1. This is a hand where I really could have used a minute or two in my time bank. I think if I had more time I would have just given up on the turn. All in all, I’m in this spot by sizing so big on the flop. Once I’ve sized it so big on the flop, I don’t have room to barrel this turn.
Shoving the turn would have been better
Even shoving the turn is better than my sizing. A hand like
The best solution here is to check-fold, the second best is to jam, and my approach is the worst. Of course, sometimes my opponent has sixes, folds the turn, we move on and never think about this hand again. But analyzing shows this was a poorly played hand on my part.
Hand #4: A compounded mistake
The next hand is one orbit after the previous hand and I’m in the big blind again.
- Preflop
Blinds: 1,500 / 3,000 Ante 325
MP: 406,763
Hero (BB): 106,397 -
10
10
7
7
Preflop: fold, fold, fold, MP raises to 6,750, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls
This should have been a fold
In this situation with 35 Big Blinds I should just fold Ten-Seven-off in the Big Blind. Had I been full stacked it would have been a different story. I don’t work with *solvers in Hold’em, so I don’t know what a solver would say. But my gut feeling tells me that I should fold preflop with this stack. We’ll see why on the flop.
Solvers - poker software that offers game theory optimal (GTO) solutions to a specific scenario - which the user inputs, like table action and bet sizes.
- Flop
Flop: (18,000) -
10
10
4
4
4
4
Hero checks, MP bets 4,500, Hero calls
Now I flop a ten and it’s really tough to get away from it. My opponent bets small and obviously I just have a call here.
- Turn
Turn: (27,000) -
10
10
4
4
4
4
9
9
Hero checks, MP bets 20,400, Hero calls
Why my opponent might be bluffing the turn
The
*Wet cards are those that connect well to the board and are draw heavy, allowing a player to make stronger hands like flushes and straights. Opposite are dry cards or dry boards.
Had this been a dry turn, let’s say a Two, Three or Five, there are a lot less combinations my opponent can have that have no showdown value and that he’s incentivised to continue betting with.
I’m at the top of my range
It doesn’t look like a good hand, but any Ten is very high up in my range. I have very few Fours – maybe Four-Five-suited, Six-Four-suited or Ace-Four-suited. But there are very few combinations with Fours in my range. I’m probably also continuing the flop versus such a small bet size with any two Broadway cards, any Ace-high. Meaning, this Ten is pretty high up in my calling-range. The wetness of the turn suckered me in and I’m check-calling again to re-evaluate on the river.
- River
River: (67,800) -
10
10
4
4
4
4
9
9
5
5
Hero checks, MP bets 108,000, Hero calls 74,422
The river brings a super brick, unfortunately. My opponent jams and this is a horrible spot that I got myself into.
A hero call against my opponent’s range
I think Ace-Ten is the worst hand that my opponent goes for three streets of value with. Any worse Ten finds a check on one of the streets. He’s representing Aces through Jacks, Nines, Ace-Ten and random Fours.
Yes, he has value hands that he can shove the river with, but I decided that he has enough hands like Eight-Seven-suited, Queen-Jack, Jack-Eight-suited, or random bluffs that he plays this way. My opponent can afford to bluff this river and his stack is not too much compromised and so far, he played quite aggressively. That’s why I decided to make a hero call.
It’s tough for me to have hands that are way better. I never have overpairs, I never have Tens or Nines, I have very few Fours in my range. Ten-Seven plays effectively as good as Queen-Ten in this situation.
- Showdown
MP shows
A
A
10
10
and wins 216,644
Once I have decided to call preflop, it’s really tough to fold postflop. After analyzing the hand I’m okay with my postflop play, but not my preflop play. Here one mistake compounds the others and I’d love to have someone put this hand through PioSOLVER and find out whether Ten-Seven-off with 35 Big Blinds is a call before the flop. In hindsight I definitely should have just folded.
With this 4th hand Jesper's run at the PokerStars EPT Main Event came to an early end.
Would you have played something differently, do you agree or disagree with his reasoning? Please leave a comment below.
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It’s a great read. Thanks for sharing such a mindful & researched guide with us.