PL.com's Dan Skolovy explains calculating outs, pot odds and implied odds for beginners in this installment of PokerListings Strategy.
Comments
13
Arty Smokes
2011-05-31
Kecinpulach is right about the second example. It's an easy call even without considering implied odds and getting value on the river. If you make the $15 call, you'll be contributing 15/50.5 of the total pot (equivalent to 35.5:15 or just more than 2 to 1), which is 29.7%, and your 15 outs provide a 32.6% chance of drawing out.
It's definitely worth contributing 29.7% of the pot on the turn if you're going to win it all 32.6% of the time!
An open-ended straight flush draw is a monster, especially if you have the top two cards of it (e.g. you have Qh Jh on a 10h 9h 3s flop). It should generally be played very aggressively.
Sijen
2010-08-10
@ Don
Junior is right, but also consider this:
"See, you're assumption lye's that all the cards you need are in the deck and not dealt to another player." - but all the cards you don't need, could be dealt to folded players, as well as in the deck. I think that is why you don't subtract those cards
Junior
2010-05-23
@ Don, I get what u mean.
But try to look at it like this: I.e. you need that A/K/Q to win. Those cards r high cards and chances that someone who folded the flop, has them are imo small. Its more likely that they didn`t and thus you don`t assume they have it.
On the other hand, keeping this consideration in the back of ur hat, u can mess with people u know are extremely rational (using the method mentioned by the TS)
Jeremy
2010-02-11
Playing traditional 5 card stud poker i use his rational and am successfull, but online playing, especially Texas Holdem tournaments when i make the last dozen players i get rolled on the river by last card straights and flushes.Ironic
Don
2009-06-19
I understand the concept of the calculations however when counting your outs shouldn't you also subtract the cards in each person's hand prior to dividing? See, you're assumption lye's that all the cards you need are in the deck and not dealt to another player. I think by assuming that another player has your card then the intrinsic value of the outs becomes more accurate. Thereby giving you a greater informed chance of comparing it with the pot odds.
Sean Lind
2009-04-25
You can use either odds, but you just have to make sure you compair apples to apples.
to keep it simple, you want to always use the odds of making your hand. If you're 20% to make your hand 4-1 dog, you need to get better than 4-1 odds to make money.
kunit
2009-04-18
which one do you use actually, the odds of making your hand or the odds against making you hand?.
Or both are the same?
Kecinpulach
2009-03-15
In the second example (Jh9h) we have proper odds to call turn even without implied odds, imo. 15 of 46 cards (32,6%) complete our draw (although two of them double the board) and we are given to call 15 to win 35,5 (42,2%). Roughly you lose 15 dolars twice and win 35,5 dolars once, which is profitable even if he doesnt call our river value bet.
bill stevensen
2008-11-27
yeah, but you can make it full screen then you can see it fine.
Aces
2008-11-26
Great analysis but the look & feel of the table is not optimal e.g. hard to read value of pot, stacks and also cards. I am sure you will optimize and keep improving as you go.
Aces_Up88
2008-11-25
Great explanation of poker ods. Something I'd always wandered about but couldn't quite wrap my head a round.
Sean Lind
2008-11-25
Steve you're correct. It's a simple mistake to make, more of a mis-speak than anything else.
Although those odds are for making your hand specifically on the turn. If you're looking for odds of making the hand including the river :
10 outs = roughly 38% to win (with two cards left)
this means you're a 2.6:1 dog
Steve
2008-11-24
The first hand we have 10 outs after the flop. Commentator says that equates to odds of 4.7:1 against to making our hand. Shouldn't it be 3.7:1 (37 cards don't make our hand and 10 do)?
Comments
13Arty Smokes
2011-05-31Kecinpulach is right about the second example. It's an easy call even without considering implied odds and getting value on the river. If you make the $15 call, you'll be contributing 15/50.5 of the total pot (equivalent to 35.5:15 or just more than 2 to 1), which is 29.7%, and your 15 outs provide a 32.6% chance of drawing out.
It's definitely worth contributing 29.7% of the pot on the turn if you're going to win it all 32.6% of the time!
An open-ended straight flush draw is a monster, especially if you have the top two cards of it (e.g. you have Qh Jh on a 10h 9h 3s flop). It should generally be played very aggressively.
Sijen
2010-08-10@ Don
Junior is right, but also consider this:
"See, you're assumption lye's that all the cards you need are in the deck and not dealt to another player." - but all the cards you don't need, could be dealt to folded players, as well as in the deck. I think that is why you don't subtract those cards
Junior
2010-05-23@ Don, I get what u mean.
But try to look at it like this: I.e. you need that A/K/Q to win. Those cards r high cards and chances that someone who folded the flop, has them are imo small. Its more likely that they didn`t and thus you don`t assume they have it.
On the other hand, keeping this consideration in the back of ur hat, u can mess with people u know are extremely rational (using the method mentioned by the TS)
Jeremy
2010-02-11Playing traditional 5 card stud poker i use his rational and am successfull, but online playing, especially Texas Holdem tournaments when i make the last dozen players i get rolled on the river by last card straights and flushes.Ironic
Don
2009-06-19I understand the concept of the calculations however when counting your outs shouldn't you also subtract the cards in each person's hand prior to dividing? See, you're assumption lye's that all the cards you need are in the deck and not dealt to another player. I think by assuming that another player has your card then the intrinsic value of the outs becomes more accurate. Thereby giving you a greater informed chance of comparing it with the pot odds.
Sean Lind
2009-04-25You can use either odds, but you just have to make sure you compair apples to apples.
to keep it simple, you want to always use the odds of making your hand. If you're 20% to make your hand 4-1 dog, you need to get better than 4-1 odds to make money.
kunit
2009-04-18which one do you use actually, the odds of making your hand or the odds against making you hand?.
Or both are the same?
Kecinpulach
2009-03-15In the second example (Jh9h) we have proper odds to call turn even without implied odds, imo. 15 of 46 cards (32,6%) complete our draw (although two of them double the board) and we are given to call 15 to win 35,5 (42,2%). Roughly you lose 15 dolars twice and win 35,5 dolars once, which is profitable even if he doesnt call our river value bet.
bill stevensen
2008-11-27yeah, but you can make it full screen then you can see it fine.
Aces
2008-11-26Great analysis but the look & feel of the table is not optimal e.g. hard to read value of pot, stacks and also cards. I am sure you will optimize and keep improving as you go.
Aces_Up88
2008-11-25Great explanation of poker ods. Something I'd always wandered about but couldn't quite wrap my head a round.
Sean Lind
2008-11-25Steve you're correct. It's a simple mistake to make, more of a mis-speak than anything else.
Although those odds are for making your hand specifically on the turn. If you're looking for odds of making the hand including the river :
10 outs = roughly 38% to win (with two cards left)
this means you're a 2.6:1 dog
Steve
2008-11-24The first hand we have 10 outs after the flop. Commentator says that equates to odds of 4.7:1 against to making our hand. Shouldn't it be 3.7:1 (37 cards don't make our hand and 10 do)?