Loading...How Not to Suck at Poker: Learn Basic Odds
By Sean Lind
Part 4 in a 10-part series for the beginner poker player, this article will look at some simple tricks and tips for understanding basic poker odds.
Like it or not, Texas Hold'em is an odds game. Every action you make, hand you play or bet you face has odds, probability and statistics attached to it.
For the math-phobes out there though, don't worry. You don't need to become a math expert to be a strong poker player.
In fact, there are tons of serious players who have no idea what a common denominator is. As complex as Hold'em strategy is, the game at its core is still very simple.
And this simplicity makes for simple equations and easy mathematics.
Many of the following things you don't need to fully understand - you just need to know enough to have a good feel for the game.
Figuring Out Your Pot Odds
Pot odds are the odds you're "being offered by the pot" to make your call. This is the amount of money in the pot compared to the amount of money you must pay to stay in the hand.
An example:
Say we go to the flop heads-up. There's $10 in the pot and your opponent bets $5. Since your opponent's bet is now part of the pot, you're being offered $15 for a cost of $5. In ratio form, that's 15:5
To simplify, you always make the right side of your ratio equal to 1 (you'll see why this is easier in a second). So to make the right side equal to 1, divide 5 by itself. 5/5 = 1.
Basic math rules say that whatever you do to one side of a ratio, you must do to the other. So since we divided the right side by 5, we divide the left side by 5. 15/5 = 3.
Your new ratio is 3-1 (If you want to skip a step, you canalso just divide the left side by the right side (15/5) to find the left-hand side of the new ratio).
So in this situation, the pot odds are 3-1.
When you're heads up with Phil Ivey, the odds are never in your favor.
Figuring Out Your Equity
The next step after figuring out your pot odds is figuring out your equity (your chances of winning the pot compared to your opponent's).
To calculate your equity, take your total number of outs and multiply that number by 4 on the flop (or 2 on the turn).
This will give you your chance at winning the pot as a percentage.
So for example if you have a flush draw, you have 9 outs on the flop. 9x4 = 36% chance at making the best hand.
Since we have the pot odds as a ratio, we then need to make that percentage a ratio to compare the two. With 100 possible percentage points, your equity ratio is then 64-36 (64 times you don't make your hand; 36 times you do).
If we use the same ratio shortcut from the pot odds section to get the right side equal to 1, the equity ratio is (64/36)-1 or 1.7-1. Meaning for every one time you make your hand there will be 1.7 times that you don't.
If you don't want to be that precise in your pot-odds calculation (and poker math doesn't need to be exact at the table), the simple shortcut is to estimate that 36 will go into 64 a little less than twice.
It really doesn't matter if you think that means it's 1.6, 1.7, 1.8 or 1.9-1; even if you just round it to 2-1 that's probably close enough to decide on making the call or not.
Comparing Your Pot Odds to Your Equity
So how do you know if you should make the call? Simply compare the two numbers on the left-hand side of the ratios.
If your pot odds number is higher than your equity number, then it's a good call. If it's lower, then you're making a bad call.
In its most basic form, odds are no more complicated than this.
Some Random Odds and Ends to Keep handy
| Probability of... | Odds | Example |
| Being dealt a pair | 17-1 (5.9% ) | 7 7 |
| Being dealt Aces | 221-1 (0.45%) | A A |
| Being dealt Ace-King Suited | 331.5-1 (0.3%) | A K |
| Flopping a set with a pocket-pair | 8.51-1 (11.76%) | 8 8 | 2 8 A |
| Flopping two pair (without a pocket-pair pre-flop) | 48-1 (2.02%) | 7 10 | 7 10 3 |
| Making a Flush by the river (flopped 4 to a suit) | 1.9-1 (35%) | A Q | 9 4 A 10 |
| Making an open-ended straight by the river | 2.2-1 (32%) | 6 7 | 8 9 2 3 10 |
| A full house or better by the river (flopped three of a kind) | 2-1 (33%) | 4 4 | 4 K Q K |
More on how not to suck at poker:
- How Not to Suck at Poker: Play Fewer Hands
- How Not to Suck at Poker: Play in Position
- How Not to Suck at Poker: Count Your Outs
- How Not to Suck at Poker: Learn Basic Odds
- How Not to Suck at Poker: Pay Attention
- How Not to Suck at Poker: Have a Bankroll
- How Not to Suck at Poker: Stop Bluffing
- How Not to Suck at Poker: Keep Your Mouth Shut
- How Not to Suck at Poker: Keep Records
- How Not to Suck at Poker: Discuss the Game
Related strategy articles:
Comment(s) on this article
Brad McBride May 24, 2009
Concise and to the point. An excellent article for beginners and a good refresher for experienced players.
Tbone May 28, 2009
Sean,
One question - you first say:
'So for example if you have a flush draw, you have 9 outs on the flop. 9x4 = 36% chance at making the best hand."
I take it to mean that there is a 36% of winning a flush.
But then later on, you divide 36/64, which gives 56%....
If the odds of winning are 36%, you shouldnt then divide that by 64% - how do you figure?
Thanks,
confused May 29, 2009
out of 100 hands,you would expect to win 36 and lose 64.........64+36=100.....where does 56% come from???That was a well written article.
b May 29, 2009
don't the odds depend on the number of players at the table and the subsequent number of cards remaining in the deck?
Sean Lind May 29, 2009
I'm not sure where you guys are getting 56% from?
The odds of hitting a flush are 36% (9*4).
100% - 36% = 64%
64 - 36
That's your ratio, 64 times you don't make it, 36 times you do.
To make Ratio's easy to work with, we want to make the right side into a 1.
36/36 = 1
you can't do something to one side of a ratio without doing the same to the other
64/36 = 1.777777777
your new ratio is 1.777777 - 1
Does this clear anything up?
Sean Lind May 29, 2009
b,
For what we're doing, the number of players at the table is irrelevant.
The reason for this, is we're only calculating the chances of us hitting our hand. Since we don't know if our 9 outs are in the stub, another player's hand, or in the muck we have to assume they're all live, and make our calculations on that assumption.
Sean Lind May 29, 2009
I think some of the confusion here comes from people having a hard time understanding ratios.
let's look at 3-1
Most people would think that 3 is 3 times greater than 1, so it's 300%
that's a mistake.
3-1 means 3parts to 1 part. That means there are a total of 4 parts. the three is 3 out of 4, or 75%
Hope this helps a bit.
John Derek Miller May 29, 2009
Just to help a little 56% is misleading, its just the amount of times the hand will flush for every 100 it won't.
Out of 156 times this is played out 56 times you will be successful but does not mean you will necessarily win the hand!
It does not mean you will hit 56% of the time because it already states the chance is 36% and I personally think that's all the info you need.
ArneMorten Aug 17, 2009
Um, sorry I am late about this but i just discovered this site.
Can anyone please post how you calcualte all the above odds? (some random odds and ends to keep handy)
it would help me a ton about calculating other types of odds in the furutre.
Sean Lind Aug 17, 2009
Hey Arne, you can try these articles:
How to calculate Equity
Pot Odds
Morten Hard Aug 17, 2009
Just wanted to pinpoint a small mistake in the article. Where it says.: (64 times you don't make your hand; 34 times you do). It should have been 36. Not 34. Got a little confused at first. No wonder. ;) lol
Sean Lind Aug 17, 2009
Thanks again Morten. You're really chewing through all the odds articles it seems.
Morten Hard Aug 18, 2009
Well I can't help it..
They're all just so tasty! <:D
Lar Aug 31, 2009
I thought your outs were to be multiplied by 2. Thats what I'v eread in most places. Obviously these numbers (2&4) create dramatically different pictures of where you stand!
Sean Lind Sep 1, 2009
Lar,
You multiply your outs by 2 to get the odds for 1 card to come. So on the turn, you use 2.
Also, on the flop, you use 2 if you expect to have to pay another bet to see the river. Multiplying by 4 is for hitting your draw on either the turn or river.
caluolin Oct 21, 2009
Why on the turn I multiply my outs by 2 to get the odds for 1 card to come?
Sean Lind Oct 21, 2009
Caluolin,
If you want your odds for one card to come, such as getting odds from the turn to hit the river, you multiply outs by 2.
That's just how the math works.
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