US Live Tournament Poker – Is It About to Die?

The Big Beautiful Bill

In July of 2025, the US House of Representatives passed Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, legislation written to significantly change the tax laws in the US by permanently ending taxes on tips, overtime pay and making take-home paycheques bigger for most families.  The problem for gamblers and poker players is the line that caps the losses gamblers can claim to 90%, a reduction from 100%.

What does that mean?  Effectively this – in 2025, a poker player who played in $100,000 of tournaments and made exactly $100,000 in winnings would be able to write all $100k off, and not have to claim tax on any of their winnings.

In 2026, that changes to a 90% cap, meaning that same poker player who played in $100,000 of tournaments and won $100,000 -now has to pay tax on any winnings above 90% of their buy-ins, or $10.  Even though the poker player made no money, in the eyes of the IRS they owe tax on that $10k, which could equate to a tax bill of roughly $2,400 based on a 24% federal tax bracket.

Even netting out a profit on the year could be wiped out by the tax burden now required:

• Winnings $300,000
• Losses $280,000
• Profit $20,000
• Deductible Losses = $280,000 x 90% = $252,000
• Taxable Income = $300,000 – $252,000 = $48,000
• Tax Owed = $48,000 x 24% = $11,520
• Profit After Tax = $20,000 – $11,520 = $8,480

This has outraged the poker, sports betting, and gambling community as a whole by putting them in a situation where they will be taxed more, even if they lose more going forward.  It effectively creates Phantom Income – money that is taxed by the IRS but not actually made because of these new rules.

This law hurts both tournament and cash poker players, but the rules for cash players will be even tougher to navigate unless they are keeping stringent logs for exactly how much they are buying in with, and how much they are winning and losing per session. Should the provision be maintained, expect a higher level of scrutiny from IRS officials auditing returns from cash poker players due to this change.

This change also has a potential negative effect on the tourism industry in Nevada specifically as Americans may not want to travel to Las Vegas to gamble money that they now might have to pay tax on, depending on how much they gamble and win.  Many poker pros such as Erik Seidel and Phil Galfond have come out and said that if things don’t change, they will be playing significantly less in 2026, or semi-retiring all together, and many pros and amateurs will either play less, or play off-shore to reduce their visible winnings to the US Government.  Events like the WPT World Championship, the WSOP and other large events could see a sizable reduction in players in 2026, reducing the rake and making it less profitable to put these mega-series on.

ESTA

If that wasn’t bad news for the industry, layer on top the potential change to VISA entry requirements for many foreign tourists that they will have to identify all of their social media handles used over the last 5 years to complete the process and gain a VISA to enter the United States.  Many believe this is being done in advance of the US joint-hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup in June and July, 2026 to identify those who have publicly denounced the Trump administration, but the ramifications for poker, specifically tourism to Nevada for the 2026 World Series, could be massive as a result.

While the motives may be clear, many will worry about what the USA Government could actually be looking for when it comes to reviewing one’s social media history over the last 5 years.  It’s been noted that the courts would not stand for denying entry to any foreigner because they have made a critical comment about Trump in the past, but the invasion of privacy by a government could be enough to sway travellers from attempting to enter America.  With access to sports betting, gambling, and online poker around the world, many tourists looking to scratch their poker itch may not make the trek to the US and instead stay home and play the WSOP Online, or other major series happening on the major online poker rooms.  This could have another negative effect on the already slumping US Tourism Industry, and specifically the Las Vegas poker scene with fewer players willing to fork over their social media lives to the authorities to go chase WSOP gold in June when these measures could be in place by.

What Does It All Mean?

It’s impossible to tell right now – the growing concern from poker players and specific US elected leaders like Rep. Titus of Nevada who has footed a bipartisan bill to undo the changes; Rep. Jason Smith, Senator Ted Cruz to name a few are pushing to get legislation passed in both the House of Representatives and the Senate to change the lines from the original bill, but the fact remains that there are politicians opposed to changing those provisions, preventing passage at this time.  And unless something is passed, these changes will go into effect on January 1st, putting the poker and gambling industry on notice.

As for the ESTA changes, currently the Department of Homeland Security is in a 60 day public consultation phase where residents can offer feedback on the proposed change before they will take it back and make recommendations on how to move forward  Changes to the current ESTA process do NOT require Congress; meaning if the Department sees fit that this is needed, they will institute the change on their end.  Estimates seem to suggest that no changes will be in place before the summer, but the timing couldn’t be worse for those planning to travel for the WSOP Main Event, or other large scale events happening in the US this summer.

All told, the waters have never been more uncertain for American professional poker players and casino operators when it comes to their outlook for the next 12 months.  Much can change between now and then, but if things go the way they look currently, expect a major decline in players playing poker, and foreigners travelling to the US starting this summer which could lead to a significant downturn at the 2026 World Series of Poker.