Why Lederer and Ferguson (Maybe) Took Your Money

Published On: 14 November 2011 / Modified: 9 March 2018
Created By: Arthur Reber
Chris Ferguson

There’s been a lot of speculation about the psychology behind the folks who’ve been indicted in the Full Tilt Poker debacle.

A lot of the recent talk has been about the purported actions of Chris Ferguson and Howard Lederer, two of poker’s more respected long-time players.

Lederer is often referred to as “The Professor” because of his thoughtful manner and penchant for deep analysis and insightful questions. Chris is actually closer to this role in real life since he holds a Ph.D. and has spent more than a few hours in front of college classrooms.

Until now few have had anything but admiration and respect for them both.

Of course, we’re still in the classic “innocent until proven guilty” mode. I have no idea what the outcome will be. They may be found guilty; they may be exonerated. I am only interested here in the psychological issues.

The question raised most often is: How could these very smart dudes with position, money and prestige do the things they are accused of? It is a good question. It is also one that gets asked every time an odd-ball crime gets committed.

Howard Lederer
Howard Lederer

Perception is Skewed by Environment

Some Boy Scout that everyone likes and thinks of as a good kid goes into a school and shoots up the cafeteria. A respected businessman and pillar of the community is indicted for operating a billion-dollar Ponzi scheme. A trusted neighbor and father of two is arrested for running a child pornography ring.

Everybody scratches their heads and wonders how could this “wonderful young man,” “respected financier” or “valued member of the community” do such a thing – just like poker players are wondering about the folks at FTP.

Psychologists who've studied these cases have found that the context, the environment within which we live, is more compelling than we often realize.

We tend to label people based on the things we see them do. So our poker-playing friends at Full Tilt Poker get thought of as smart, caring and sensible because we see them doing smart, caring and sensible things – and we wonder how they could have been scamming us.

But making these attributions neglects the role of the environment -- the kid who seemed so nice, like a Boy Scout should be, turns out to have been bullied for years by school mates and decided to pay them back. The revered investor turns out to be a Bernie Madoff who was consumed with greed and the desire to play with the big boys. The father of two is discovered to have serious money problems and was peddling child-porn to get out of debt.

Corruption is Just an Opportunity Away

The message here was captured nicely by the famous "Prison" study carried out some years ago by Phil Zimbardo at Stanford University.

Students were divided into two groups, prisoners and guards and a mock jailhouse was set up. Zimbardo was stunned at how easily perfectly ordinary, caring kids who just happened to have been put in the role of guards could turn really ugly and sadistic when the setting was right for it.

Chris Ferguson
Even Jesus prays.

So, maybe our very smart and sensible poker "friends" found temptation in large, unregulated stacks of cash. Maybe they just got notes from executives at FT asking them if they’re comfortable having a couple of million dollars shipped to their bank accounts from time to time. Who knows?

But it’s worth asking yourself what you would do in such a situation.

Everyone Has a Price

I’m sure that the vast majority of you are saying you wouldn’t be tempted, that you’re above board and honest. But the evidence is quite clear: Some would be and some would not. Greed does things to cloud the mind. Circumstances can be compelling.

There’s an apocryphal story about Abe Lincoln. He was apparently meeting with a wealthy businessman who offered him a hefty bribe to push for some legislation.

Lincoln just stared at him and stroked his beard. The businessman hesitated and then doubled the offer. Lincoln still looked at him, stroking his beard. So the guy doubled it again. At this, Lincoln got up, grabbed him by the collar and shoved him out the door.

Lincoln’s chief of staff smiled and said, “Mr. President, that was noble of you. That was a very substantial bribe.”

“Indeed,” replied Lincoln, “but nobility had nothing to do with it. Every man has his price and the son-of-a-bitch was getting awful close to mine.”

And so it goes. Remember, Lederer and Ferguson are innocent until proven guilty. But no matter what, their reps are in the toilet and that's gonna be forever. Just like another really smart guy we used to admire and respect, Russ Hamilton.

For ongoing updates Howard Lederer, Chris Ferguson and Full Tilt Poker keep an eye on our Black Friday Bulletin Board.

Author Bio:

Arthur Reber has been a poker player and serious handicapper of thoroughbred horses for four decades. He is the author of 'The New Gambler's Bible and coauthor of Gambling for Dummies'.

His new book 'Poker, Life and Other Confusing Things' from ConJelCo Publishing was just released and is available on Amazon.com.

Formerly a regular columnist for Poker Pro Magazine and Fun 'N' Games magazine, he has also contributed to Card Player (with Lou Krieger), Poker Digest, Casino Player, Strictly Slots and Titan Poker. He outlined a new framework for evaluating the ethical and moral issues that emerge in gambling for an invited address to the International Conference of Gaming and Risk Taking.

Until recently he was the Broeklundian Professor of Psychology at The Graduate Center, City University of New York.

Among his various visiting professorships was a Fulbright fellowship at the University of Innsbruck, Austria. Now semi-retired, Reber is a visiting scholar at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada.


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Alex G. 2011-11-17 12:54:31

Excellent article, with a perspective allthough known but quite scarcelly put into our thought process.

The thing that all those people come across is a big dilemma. There is a case where they could make a lot of money with a small percentage of getting caught (at least this is how they think due to not taking into consideration many factors) and there is a case where they can deny those money and let other people know of the scam, and get a "thanks m8" and "thx for letting us know" and not getting a dime.

The interesting thing here is this: How could those guys, with enough monies to feed entire Africa, got into this situation, the situation of the dilemma i metioned above (if of course this is the case).

Again Excellent article.

Arthur Reber 2011-11-15 21:45:38


Thanks for your comments but, as others have noted, my primary interest here are the psychological elements not the legal. I left the indictment element ambiguous deliberately -- which it is depending on how the DOJ proceeds.

The words "found guilty" which seemed to upset you occurred in this sentence:

"They may be found guilty; they may be exonerated. I am only interested here in the psychological issues."



Brian G. 2011-11-15 19:33:00

Point still being it's not an article about the legal semantics of the indictments. It's about the psychology of why "normal" people do "criminal" things.

They still "took" the money in the form of shareholder payments and are legally culpable for at the very least fraud and whatever the DOJ's interpretation of the ponzi scheme angle is.

Not understanding the legality of it doesn't really affect the article's premise. The question Reber seems to be trying to answer is how and why these guys managed to screw up a cash cow.

tldr 2011-11-15 19:14:14

A little more explanation: there were two documents of interest from the gov't on Black Friday: a criminal indictment and a civil complaint. The only Full Tilt persons named in the indictment are Ray Bitar and Nelson Burtnick. The civil complaint is basically a lawsuit seeking money from the defendants. The Black Friday civil complaint's defendants were a bunch of companies. In September the civil complaint was amended to add Bitar, Lederer, Ferguson, and Furst.

tldr 2011-11-15 19:06:42

Brian, they have not been added to any indictment. As acesacesaces says, a civil complaint is not a criminal indictment. And after my original comment I did skim the rest of the blog post, and it uses phrases like "found guilty," indicating that Reber didn't just misuse a single word but doesn't know what he's talking about with respect to the legal situation.

acesacesaces 2011-11-15 18:49:11

Think these two were added to the civil complaint against FTP. Not the same as criminal charges but could still screw them over in a big way.

But what happens if BTG deal goes through and FTP resolves situation with DOJ? Will Howard and Chris just get off the hook 100%?

Brian G. 2011-11-15 06:45:23


so you skipped directly down to make a comment?

they also were added to the indictment...


tldr 2011-11-15 02:07:33

First sentence: "folks who've been indicted." Second sentence mentions two persons who have NOT been indicted. Stopped reading there.


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