Five Poker Truths for Self-Reflection and Analysis

#1 Poker Can Still Provide for You

According to the topic starter, as a job, poker can earn you a decent living — even a 6-7 figure income — if you bet on a right skill set:

The author continued sharing what he considers the best piece of advice he’s heard:

“The best advice I have seen here is something Limon wrote a long time ago about live poker, which is that you should aggressively shot take and try to quickly move up to the highest stakes possible. Obviously you should be wary of BRM and avoid a situation where you are taken out of the action, but lingering around 1/3 and 2/5 endlessly is a mistake many players make. Some of the softest games in the world are some of the biggest ones.”

A lot of players strongly disagreed with this, arguing that in reality, in the second half of 2020s the majority of players can make the same or significantly more money in any other field than poker, considering the same hours and skills applied.

Key-Firefighter1579 counter argued that other work fields are capped in terms of outcome and require too much actions for climbing to the top:

“Most careers have hard caps in earnings that you are generally not going to surpass unless you start your own business, decide to climb the corporate ladder/go managerial, or reinvent the wheel in some way. Even in particularly lucrative fields, it’s very hard to get past low-mid six figures without doing one of these things. From a purely financial perspective, I think gambling/poker continues to rate pretty high in terms of earnings potential relative to time/effort.”

Some people still doubted that you can provide for yourself just by playing poker for years without having sponsorships from brands or backers. And that’s even if you are successful due to variance, inflation and changes in regulation. For example, your local ecosystem is one of the bigger barriers when it comes to a good outcome, as youngcuriousafraid explained on the example of U.S. citizens:

“In Texas, probably. If you have a local cardroom that runs 1 table with 8 dudes over 50… nah lol. That also ignores all the cost of poker (like travelling for some) compared to a regular job. I’m almost certain you could find a job paying 40k for less work than the grinding you’d have to do at low stakes. You’d also have to be beating these games for like 10+ bb per hour (2/5 makes this much more reasonable to be fair) which I dont think is that easy. Its not insurmountable, but it’s not like most people could make 40k in a year from living at low stakes at will.”

Key-Firefighter1579 couldn’t counter, clarifying that this is one of the parts of game selection, in terms of either choosing to travel or relocate for the game. Interestingly enough, no matter his point of view on money, in the end the topic-starter repeated one statement a few times: 

#2 You Should Be Comfortable for People to Be Around You in Live Poker

Social skills don’t matter much for online poker, excluding relationships with poker schools, stables and backers, of course. However, when it comes to live poker, it’s a whole different ball game.

As Key-Firefighter1579 explained in the initial post, making other players feel comfortable is among the most crucial parts of game selection — because if you’re unpleasant to play with, you have zero chances of being invited to the private games or at least welcomed in public games:

The author expanded on this point by saying:

“People who sit around being miserable, berating others, coaching, etc. are not fun to be around and are never going to get into said games. On top of that, the whales that will play in your typical public casino game are going to avoid playing with people like that when possible for this reason. I have seen many players that are probably better than I am technically make 10% of what I make because they are socially oblivious and refuse to work on it.”

While there’s a general consensus that social skills are undoubtedly important, some players noticed a flaw in the logic. A user mentioned earlier, youngcuriousafraid pointed out that this applies to very specific situations that aren’t relevant for the majority of players:

He also added that “private games” aren’t literally for everyone, referring back to his own experience:

“I got into splashy private games once and it was… weird. A very hedonistic vibe. I was too serious and stopped getting invited. Honestly I couldn’t get stacked for that amount of money and continue with a smile on my face. I was playing too big and I made it a bit awkward when I lost lol. I tried to be a good sport, but the money just meant completely different things to us.“

Key-Firefighter1579 agreed that the hedonistic side of private games is “1000% true” and it’s certainly not for everyone but it doesn’t change the fact that these games are the most profitable for players who can get in and know how to play.

#3 Games in Apps Are Really Good

No matter how many players you ask about poker club apps, you’ll always get answers ranging anywhere between “It’s a scam!” and “That’s how poker is supposed to be!”. Key-Firefighter1579 is closer to the second group because his own experiences helped overcome prejudices against poker apps:

“There are a ton of private app games that have some of the best action you will ever find, are good with payments, offer RB, etc etc. Even if the rake on these is high, they can absolutely be beat for insane amounts compared to what you would be making playing on any major site. So if you want to play online poker as a primary source of income, I think app games are a must. Of course, this goes back to #2, because in order to get into said games and find an agent/club you trust, you will need to network and meet people.”

He specified that when talking about poker apps he means “private games on apps with hosts/agents who handle the money, settlement, etc. ClubGG, Pokerbros, PPP, Pokerrr2 etc”.

Some commentators weren’t impressed with this, not finding it convincing enough to change their perspective. As PAE8791 shared in the comments:

Then again, others supported the topic-starter, as Monkeys_R_Scary:

“Agreed with number 3. Some of the highest win rates I’ve ever had playing poker were on app games back in 2020-2022ish. I’m talking 30+ bb/hour winrates in 1/2 over hundreds of hours.”

However, Key-Firefighter1579 warned the community that even with a lot of good clubs, unions and apps, players should be careful in choosing one to play:

#4 The Poker Community Is Full of Negativity

While people come across a lot of let’s call it “dirty stories” from the poker world on social media, many of them still remain out of the public eye or are even perceived as an integral and familiar part of the game.

Key-Firefighter1579’s cumulative experience shows the following:

He continued to elaborate:

“Poker players love to gossip and talk shit, I don’t think I have seen more of this anywhere else in life outside of middle school or an episode of the Real Housewives. Many poker ecosystems are propped up by a handful of whales with a huge gambling addiction or other struggles that they’re using poker to dissociate from. Many of these whales can afford to lose whatever until they no longer can, and then very dark outcomes can follow — divorce, bankruptcy, suicide, list goes on.”

He shared that while a lot of people in poker are genuinely great human beings, they don’t make up the majority of the community:

This isn’t a topic for discussion actually but more for self-reflection. It’s there for you to understand what you need to be ready to endure when it comes to the people around you and what kind of player you want to be in this game.

#5 Survivorship Bias Doesn’t Actually Matter in Poker

Maybe the most controversial poker truths from Key-Firefighter1579 touches on the very common survivorship bias — the tendency to focus on successful attempts and ignore failures.

The author argues that that while this type of logical error is very much important for inexperienced players, when you reach a certain level in poker it tends to become irrelevant:

To explain his reasoning, Key-Firefighter1579 continued:

“This is because most poker ecosystems, especially higher ones, operate with a ton of slow paying, lending, staking, bla bla. If you establish yourself as an ethical person and you make a lot of connections, you will find a lot of people willing to help you out when variance is bad, whether that means lending you money, allowing you to pay slower, backing you, etc. This is going to vary based on a ton of factors, but my point is that if you are not being suicidal with BRM and are beating the games you are regularly playing it is significantly harder to go broke once you eclipse a certain point.”

Interestingly, this opinion didn’t face any critique at all — maybe, because readers were afraid to look biased.

So, feel free to challenge this and other conclusions of Key-Firefighter1579 on Reddit — his thread remains open for AMA, discussion and disputes.