When to Fold: A Beginner's Guide
No mistake costs beginner poker players more money than refusing to fold a losing hand.
Because you have to assume you're up against AA or KK, you are now playing the hand as if it's pocket sevens. Even though you have an overpair, which is typically a strong holding, you have to stick to the rule "no set, no bet."
If we go back to the pre-flop action for a second, you might ask why you called the re-reraise pre-flop, since you had to know at that time you were beat. Even though you know you're beat, you're getting laid odds far too attractive to fold.
At the point of our final action the total pot has $11.35, with you needing to call only $2. On top of the $11 you can be almost certain that the cut-off is going to call as well. The immediate implied odds put the pot at $13.35, just short of 7-1 on your money.
Your pocket pair is going to flop a set in the neighborhood of one in eight times. The pot odds at this time are slightly short, but knowing that your opponent has KK or AA gives you great implied odds to call. More than likely, flopping a set will win you your opponent's entire stack.
Just remember: no set, no bet.
Scenario 2
You're at the same table, but action has opened up slightly. More players are seeing flops, and more money is being thrown around, without players getting too far out of line on any hand.
You're sitting on the button with a deep stack:
Your Hand:
Under the gun raises to $1.50 and four players call before the action reaches you. You pop the bet up to $5. Both the blinds fold, and out of the five players still in the hand, the original raiser plus two of the callers head to the flop. The pot is $23.35.
The Flop:
Under the gun bets out $12, the first player calls, second player folds and the third player raises to $30. Action is on you - what do you do?
Again, here you are with an overpair to the board and a must-fold situation. Out of the entire range you can put your opponents on, you're now behind almost all of it; chances are you're in third place. The only logical hands for your opponents to hold are: KK, QQ, JJ, TT, A-K, A-Q, K-Q, J-T, Q-J.
Out of that whole pre-flop range, you're ahead of two of those hands (one of which has a decent draw against you). After the flop action, you have to remove the hand you beat from the list, putting you behind pretty much everything.
You're going have to get very lucky to win this hand or chop the pot. This is a must-fold.
It's almost always correct to wait for a situation in which you know you're good, rather than play heavily into a pot where all you can do is hope. When you have to actually sit and think about what hand you can possibly beat, you're not in good shape.
Many beginners will think of that one hand they can beat out of a range of five hands, and make the call after convincing themselves that their hope is actually a read.
Remember, there is no shame in folding. It's better to get bluffed and fold than to make a bad call and lose your whole stack.
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Comments
1Vincent
2010-01-17Thank you. you just clarified some things for me.