QOD - 30 Oct 09

[Air_Nav]

"In your six-max game, it's folded around to you on the button. You raise to $6 and both regulars in the blinds call. The flop comes 8s3c2h and they both check. You check through and the turn comes 2c. The small blind checks and the big blind bets $12."

Ok, you have Ac2d, for trips, and the given answer is to raise:

"A raise is by far and away the best play here. It looks pretty bluff-y to raise after checking the flop through, so your opponent may choose to overplay a hand like 99 or even shove with a draw to try and get you to fold. Raise it now."

Am I the only one that disagrees?

It is highly unlikely that either of your opponents has the case 2 of spades, having called your pre-flop raise, so you are ahead of any hand that hasn't made a boat (88 or 33). They could be drawing to a straight (more likely with 45 suited, rather than A4 or A5) or a flush. In any case, I assume that we are way ahead, and I'm greedy - I want to keep both of the other players in. By just calling, you are giving good odds to the small blind to stay in, when both other players are likely drawing thin. The SB will get about 3-1 to call, so you might get another $12 by just calling and playing poker on the river. If the river doesn't pair the board or bring a club, you can be confident that you are still ahead and may still be called by that overpair.

Open to discussion - that is how I would play, but interested in other opinions.
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Air_Nav
Full Tilt

[Air_Nav]

Sorry - meant SB gets 3.5-1 to make the call on the turn - my bad. I blame the cold medication....
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Air_Nav
Full Tilt

[chojrak]

I disagree.

Raising is best for two reasons here:
1. You gain value with your hand from hands containing a PP or 8. Your raise here actually screams BLUFF, so if the BB has a good pair you can make a lot of money.
2. You make the possible draws to pay you so they can't outdraw you for cheap.

So what you're saying here is that you prefer letting them to catch something? There are actually at least 14 cards (possible 17) you don't want to see on the river - three 8's, three 3's and 8 remaining clubs, and maybe who knows, even a 6 may hurt you.

The SB can't call you unless he has a PP or he's a donkey, otherwise even with 3.5:1 on his money he doesn't have the odds to call with overcards, especially given the fact that he might hit his overcard and still lose.

Plus don't forget that a raise also gives you information here - you can find out if someone has a boat or not. Raising is definitely my play also.

[Air_Nav]

Ok, I see your point, although I note that you are only afraid of TWO of each of the 8's and 3's - they are not good to anyone else unless they already have one in their hand, to give them a better boat - if you see my point. Otherwise, I acknowledge the value of your play - thanks!

Anyone else?
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Air_Nav
Full Tilt

[chojrak]

Yeah, you're right !!! There are only 2 of them, I wasn't paying attention. Still raising is my option