Discussion of a daily quiz question. Dealing with theory.

[crash7]

On another forum I found a Daily Quiz type thing. I thought I would bring this one up for discussion as I don't agree with their answer.


Playing $5/$10 Fixed Limit Texas Hold'em

You get dealt K 10 in the BB.

Flop comes K 8 7 with four opponents.

The SB opens for a bet.

Fold
Call
Raise

I elected to call.

Supposedly the correct answer is to raise here. The logic behind it being "Is there anything saying you're behind? No. Is there any reason to slowplay the hand? No, it isn't that strong. So don't fold and don't slowplay by calling. Only one alternative left - raising, that is. Make all possible draws (to straights and two pair) pay for the pleasure of outdrawing you.

About 33% answered Call and about 64% voted to raise.

Here are my thoughts....

Because this is a FL game and not NL you lose a huge edge with your betting influence. You can't apply the necessary pressure to make an opponent fold a big draw. In a FL game it is rare when you won't find the proper pot odds to continue with a draw. With so many people in the flop already for this particular hand example the pot is already fed well enough that even for a double bet on the flop players are going to find the right odds to call. The more players that call the better the pot odds become for following players. Even if you were to raise here in the BB the players behind you are still getting decent pot odds to continue in the hand. The SB has already expressed that they like their hand so you can be pretty sure you won't scare them off. There is also the chance you're betting right into a bigger hand. Say the SB limped in with 77, 78, K7, K8, KJ, KQ, AK, or even slow playing a KK for some unknown reason. All of these are bad news for someone holding a K10. Note that I emphasized in their quote "isn't that strong." This is because there are so many hands that could have you dominated or drawing nearly dead. Unless you are in fact winning you only have about 5 outs to improve. Let's not also forget that any opponent holding a 56,69, or 910 are getting laid good odds to go after their straight. Anyone who has hit a pair has about 5 outs as well. The combined drawing power of the four opponents vs a K10 in this situation is very dangerous. I would not expect the K10 to hold up (if it is already winning) very often. I don't like the raise here because I see K10 as potentially already losing or will get out drawn.

You want to maximize your wins and minimize your losses. Although raising here with a possible best hand at the time is maximizing your profits I see it as also maximizing your losing potential should you already be behind or should you get out drawn. By calling you are still giving yourself a chance to profit but you are minimizing your risk of losses against being out drawn. On top of that you are not going to be able to raise enough to ruin the pot odds of the draws that are most likely to beat you so you are keeping yourself safe. Raising is just going to put more of your chips at risk and increase the temptation to draw. Because my K10 is not a very strong hand I just want to see a showdown and pick up a small pot. This is not going to be my bread maker for the night like a full house. I am looking to keep the pot small and hopefully dodge any straights and see a cheap showdown holding hopefully best hand with top pair. There is no sense to get greedy with such a mediocre hand when you are likely to be out drawn and could potentially already be holding a losing hand with virtually no draw. Not to mention you made no play pre flop to suggest the strength or you hand to properly represent top pair. I think this is definitely a hand you want to play defensively.

What are your thoughts?

[TheSquirrel]

As an NL Tournament live player I guess I am at the exact opposite spectrum of poker players. I am definitely the wrong player to answer this and I am sure SteamRaise will tell me how wrong I am - but I agree with you for what it's worth. By raising you create a big enough pot so everyone is going to consider they have the odds to call and outdraw you. Added to this you could already be behind.

One of Mike Caro's solution to playing loose aggressive maniacs was to just call would you believe? This is almost the exact opposite of accepted theory. I guess there is a reason, theory, and answer for everything in poker.

[SteamRAISE]

I would raise it and take the hand from there.

[Peevman]

I'm for raise

[valona74]

I only play limit games and would raise as well. At this level your opponents actions to the raise will help better define the strengh of your hand.

[Red Lerouge]

This exemple is perfect to illustrate why those hands are called " trouble hands".

You find yourself in the hand but you have no idea if you're the shark or the bait.

There's so many hands that could beat you and not much you could do to eliminate them.

Even if you hit a T here, you're still in the same situation. You improve your hand but it could also have made the straight. In fact, only another K would really help at this point.

I would probably have called the first bet because it's a standard play in this game but not the 2 bets from the next villain because it shows strainth that I can't eliminate.
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A lion would kill a dog all the time but a pack of dogs would kill a lion 9 out of 10 times.

[bigdaddy910]

I don't like a raise here. My reasoning:

Assuming everybody limped preflop ($25) the bet ($5) call ($5) and raise ($10) puts $45 in pot. Our re-raise ($15) puts $60 into the pot for a $15 call laying 4 to 1 odds. Any pair is nearly 4 to 1 to win if they are sure making 2 pair or trips will win, so an open-end straight draw is justified to call.

Now we can safely assume everyone is going to call. It costs everyone else $10 or less to call, giving 6 t o 1 pot odds plus implied odds.

I ran a quickie through the calculator. Of the other 3 players, I gaved one of them an open-ender (9-10 club), one I gave bottom pair good kicker (Ah 7c) the other I treated as a donk looking for a silly gutshot (4s 6h). Yes the 6-4 isnt getting odds to call but many players dont play by the book as we all know.

The results:

Ks 10h (our hand) 36.3%
10c 9c 29.4%
Ah 7c 15.2%
4s 6h 16.5%

And whats even worse (which I think was mentioned before) is that even if you spike a 10 on the turn for top two pair, all of the outs that could have beaten you on the flop are still live after the turn. The open-ender can still catch a straight, the ace-seven can still make aces up or trip sevens, and the six-four can still catch a 5 to beat you.

Now there's an $85 pot if i calculated correctly. What do you do now? A $10 bet (if action is checked to you) lays 95 to 10, or 9.5 to 1. Any hand with a win percentage of 11-12% is justified to call. After the first caller, its 10.5 to 1, and so on. Any hand justified to call on the flop is more than justified to call on the turn. Also remember that in this situation, I tried to make king-ten the best hand. There aren't too many situations where you would have the best hand at this point, and even if you do, look at how often your hand will hold up.

So what are we raising for? all we are doing is sweetening a pot that is gonna be taken away from us 63% of the time IF we indeed have the best hand at this time which is no sure thing either.
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I GUESS ASKING FOR THE BEST HAND TO HOLD UP EVERY NOW AND THEN IS ASKING TOO MUCH!!!

[bigdaddy910]

I don't like a raise here. My reasoning:

Assuming everybody limped preflop ($25) the bet ($5) call ($5) and raise ($10) puts $45 in pot. Our re-raise ($15) puts $60 into the pot for a $15 call laying 4 to 1 odds. Any pair is nearly 4 to 1 to win if they are sure making 2 pair or trips will win, so an open-end straight draw is justified to call.

Now we can safely assume everyone is going to call. It costs everyone else $10 or less to call, giving 6 t o 1 pot odds plus implied odds.

I ran a quickie through the calculator. Of the other 3 players, I gaved one of them an open-ender (9-10 club), one I gave bottom pair good kicker (Ah 7c) the other I treated as a donk looking for a silly gutshot (4s 6h). Yes the 6-4 isnt getting odds to call but many players dont play by the book as we all know.

The results:

Ks 10h (our hand) 36.3%
10c 9c 29.4%
Ah 7c 15.2%
4s 6h 16.5%

So what are we raising for? all we are doing is sweetening a pot that is gonna be taken away from us 63% of the time IF we indeed have the best hand at this time which is no sure thing either.
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I GUESS ASKING FOR THE BEST HAND TO HOLD UP EVERY NOW AND THEN IS ASKING TOO MUCH!!!

[Thaalarcon]

Three reason why you should raise here.
1. You could raise and win the pot right there. Not likely but it does happen.
2. When you raise here you might get a free card on the turn when other players check to you and see what you do and then you get to the river for free.
3.If you raise here and get called.The turn will tell you if you beat which is now saving you two or more bets on the turn and river. Because when they bet the turn and you checked the turn you simply just fold you hand.
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Don't Even Trip!

[poker2poker]

go for raise ........ it's a dam thing if you choose fold
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