Daily 3-Bet: Poker Luck, Mercier Stuck, $1 Million on DraftDay

Jason Mercier
Rough times for J-Merc.

The Daily 3-Bet is a three-spin gamble on the loosest slot machine in the mid-afternoon poker news world.

If there’s a poker story that isn’t getting enough virtual ink, feel free to post in the comments below and we’ll try to get it in a future 3-Bet piece.

In today’s 3-Bet we find the Jason Mercier train screeching to a halt, a questionable study on luck and poker and a $1-million offer from DraftDay.

Jamie Gold
Actually, they might be on to something.

1) Professor Insists Poker is Largely Luck

Just one week after a federal U.S. judge ruled that poker is largely a skill game, a University of Bremen professor is saying that randomness actually rules the game.

According to a story with the Daily Telegraph, Prof. Gerhard Meyer conducted a study that found expert poker players barely made any more money than amateur opponents.

Wait a minute, exactly what kind of study did Meyer perform?

A total of 300 poker players, including self-appointed “experts” took part in the study and played for… 60 hands. That’s a laughably small sample size for a game where skill tends to dominate the long-term.

It’s especially ironic considering Meyer admits that even team sports such as soccer and hockey involve a certain amount of luck in small sample sizes.

Might want to run that study again and see what happens over, say 10,000 hands.

2) DraftDay Offers $1 Million for Best Fantasy Football Lineup

taylor caby 04
Taylor Caby

Poker player Taylor Caby’s fantasy sports site DraftDay is offering $1 million to anyone who can pick the perfect NFL lineup for a weekend this season.

In a story with Fast Company, DraftDay CEO Caby explained that it’s a difficult feat to accomplish as you have to pick the top-scoring player in each position.

DraftDay remains one of the smaller fantasy sports sites in North America but offers unique opportunities to its users such as winning $10,000 in a single day.

Endorsed by a number of CardRunners instructors including Brian Hastings and Cole South, DraftDay is structured like an online poker site with fantasy sports tournaments running daily.

The site is 100% legal in the United States and has already received attention from venture backers Lightbank.

There are currently about 20,000 users on the site but Caby hopes to hit 60,000 over the NFL season.

You can learn more about the $1-million Perfect Lineup promotion on the DraftDay website here.

Jason Mercier
But how about those Heat?

3) #JustBadLuck for Jason Mercier

Jason Mercier burst on to the poker scene with a win at EPT San Remo for $1.3 million in 2008.

Since then Mercier has been a one-man wrecking crew on the poker circuit with two WSOP bracelets, an EPT High Roller win, a NAPT Bounty win and over $7.5 million in tournament winnings.

He was also one of the very few U.S.-based players who managed to secure a deal with industry giants PokerStars.

It appears the hot streak is over, however.

Despite winning $256k in 2012, Mercier has spent far more on buy-ins and finally took to Twitter yesterday to vent.

At the time Mercier was playing $1k/$2k Omaha-8 on PokerStars and had just gone on a $300,000+ downswing so he was understandably upset.

The silver lining for Mercier? Only four more months of 2012 remain.

Here’s a look at the Tweets in question (and a chirp from Daniel Negreanu):

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