Daily 3-Bet: Matusow Worst, Rafa Bluffs, durrrr Backs Howard
The PokerListings Daily 3-Bet is your standard Bayesian inference filtering out the chaff from the afternoon poker news harvest.
Any suggestions for a future 3-Bet feel free to drop a note in the comments.
Today in the 3-Bet we find a new, more accurate way of ranking live poker players that doesn't bode well for Mike Matusow, Rafa Nadal learns how to bluff from PokerStars and Tom “durrrr” Dwan comes out in support of Howard Lederer (kind of).
1) Matusow Worst “Famous” Player in New Live Poker Rankings
Ranking poker players for their performance in live tournaments is a complicated thing. A lot of variables obv. come into play from luck to variance to volume played to just straight dollars earned.
The Global Poker Index is the defacto ranking system accepted by most, but when you get down to brass tacks is it really that accurate?
According to Saar Wilf, not really. Wilf is a Tel-Aviv based player who dabbles in high-stakes tournaments (quite successfully btw) but who also works a lot with probability and algorithms in his regular life.
Based on that interest Wilf has set about trying to “solve” the problem of ranking live poker players.
The result? A complicated, multi-tiered algorithm that uses "a probabilistic model that attempts to extract from players' tournament results their actual skill level, while filtering out the luck factor.”
It's still a work in progress, but the adjustment it makes to the top 100 list, for example, is jarring.
What does it mean for your favorite pros? In short, it bodes well for Ben Lamb, Martin Jacobsen, Phil Hellmuth and a lot of grinders you might not know too well.
It’s not so good for, say, Mike Matusow, who comes up dead last on the famous-players list.
2) Rafa Nadal Learns How to Bluff in PokerStars Vid
We usually shy away from promo vids in this space but this one from PokerStars is worthy of a spot.
Rafa’s acting needs work, and the glasses are a debacle, but it’s good for a laugh.
Sign up and play with Rafa on PokerStars via our review page here.
3) Tom “durrrr” Dwan Backs Up Lederer After Interview
The much-awaited responses to the Lederer Files are starting to trickle in from former Full Tilt pros and one of the most wanted, Tom “durrrr” Dwan, weighed in over a series of tweets last night.
Surprisingly durrrr seems to side with Lederer’s version of the truth for the most part, although he does question Howard's angles at times and the decision to accepts deposits post-April 15.
He also doesn’t seem to be too keen on John Juanda's response either. The full series of tweets:
Just watched the last of the lederer files and then read andybloch's interview. I'm pretty confident the majority of what they said is true— Tom Dwan (@TomDwan) September 26, 2012
I knew a bit of stuff independently and what they said mainly lined up with that (although I thought howard emphasized wrong a few times)— Tom Dwan (@TomDwan) September 26, 2012
However the big gripe I have is both of them not realising how big of a mistake it was for ftp to accept deposits after april 15th— Tom Dwan (@TomDwan) September 26, 2012
Also I think I have some obligation as a person/known poker player to when possible help people avoid being taken advantage of- and I messed— Tom Dwan (@TomDwan) September 26, 2012
Up some by not trying to make more sure that ftp had the players $$. I think the owners owed this to the players more than I did obviously— Tom Dwan (@TomDwan) September 26, 2012
Which makes it a bit extra ridiculous (although still understandable to me and definitely possible I wouldve made the same mistake) that so— Tom Dwan (@TomDwan) September 26, 2012
Few owners were willing to step up and take board seats to provide oversight..... Sorry for all the tweets- this seemed the right place— Tom Dwan (@TomDwan) September 26, 2012
Lol @johnjuanda cmon. Some of what howard said wasn't exact but seemed like he tried to be accurate. He didn't guess enough, and andy seemed— Tom Dwan (@TomDwan) September 26, 2012
Pretty on point. Both of them were way off on thinking ftp taking deposits post black friday was acceptable. Rest wasn't too bad imo.— Tom Dwan (@TomDwan) September 26, 2012
Some of the responses from fellow pros have been equally interesting:
@tomdwan Can we aim a little higher and not praise for 51%+ accuracy? ;p— Justin Bonomo (@JustinBonomo) September 26, 2012
Follow durrrr on Twitter here for more.