Daily 3-Bet: Matusow Worst, Rafa Bluffs, durrrr Backs Howard
26 September 2012
durrrr weighs in on Lederer Files.
The PokerListings Daily 3-Bet is your standard Bayesian inference filtering out the chaff from the afternoon poker news harvest.
Any suggestions for a future 3-Bet feel free to drop a note in the comments.
Today in the 3-Bet we find a new, more accurate way of ranking live poker players that doesn't bode well for Mike Matusow, Rafa Nadal learns how to bluff from PokerStars and Tom “durrrr” Dwan comes out in support of Howard Lederer (kind of).
1) Matusow Worst “Famous” Player in New Live Poker Rankings
Ranking poker players for their performance in live tournaments is a complicated thing. A lot of variables obv. come into play from luck to variance to volume played to just straight dollars earned.
The Mouth: Just can't win.
The Global Poker Index is the defacto ranking system accepted by most, but when you get down to brass tacks is it really that accurate?
According to Saar Wilf, not really. Wilf is a Tel-Aviv based player who dabbles in high-stakes tournaments (quite successfully btw) but who also works a lot with probability and algorithms in his regular life.
Based on that interest Wilf has set about trying to “solve” the problem of ranking live poker players.
The result? A complicated, multi-tiered algorithm that uses "a probabilistic model that attempts to extract from players' tournament results their actual skill level, while filtering out the luck factor.”
It's still a work in progress, but the adjustment it makes to the top 100 list, for example, is jarring.
What does it mean for your favorite pros? In short, it bodes well for Ben Lamb, Martin Jacobsen, Phil Hellmuth and a lot of grinders you might not know too well.
It’s not so good for, say, Mike Matusow, who comes up dead last on the famous-players list.
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