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Daily 3-Bet: Ladies Due, Full Tilt Value, Biz Gassed!
The PokerListings Daily 3-Bet is a hidden masterpiece revealed by scraping off several layers of heavy-handed afternoon poker news brush strokes.
Any suggestions for a future 3-Bet, feel free to drop a note in the comments.
Today in the 3-Bet we find some pretty solid evidence to support the idea a woman will win this year’s PCA main event, a detailed look at the real value of your US Full Tilt account balance and a sweet, sweet Biz Markie flashback.
1) A Female Player Will Win the PCA Main Event… Probably
Have you read this awesome post on the PokerStars blog by Joanne Bartley about women and the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure yet?
If you haven’t, go there now and read it asap. It’s great, for starters.
You also can’t argue with her scientific reasoning for why a female player will win the 2013 PCA main event title.
A look back at the stats from 10 years of the PCA back up the increasingly likely possibility, even if she is being a bit facetious.
Women cashed for $0 at the PCA in 2004. In 2012, 22 players combined took home $617,500.
The top woman at the event has also placed succesively higher every year since 2010, capped by Xuan Liu's fourth-place finish last year.
After watching Liu on the live stream we’d easily put our money on her to go deep yet again, but really any number of female players can - and probably will - contend.
Sirs, you've been warned. Stick-figure science don't lie.
2) What, Exactly, is the Market Value of a US Full Tilt Account?
This was touched on briefly yesterday in Michael Kaplan’s article about the hoops US players will need to jump through to get repaid, but Reuters writer Felix Salmon followed up today with a closer look at the real value of a seized US Full Tilt Poker account.
Fluctuating wildly over the last 18 months, from around 85c on the dollar to supposedly 30-40c and even lower, Kaplan quoted Dan Fleyshman as pegging the current value at about 70-80c on the dollar.
Digging deeper and comparing it to other “alternative asset” markets like court judgments and Madoff investments, Salmon says 70-80c is a little high but fitting for a “gamble” like poker:
“... I can’t see how it makes sense to buy claims at 70 or 80 cents on the dollar — not unless the claimant is already lawyered up and has a clear path to recovery…
“But this is poker — a world where money always feels a bit unreal. (If you’re conscious of the value of the money you’re gambling in a poker game, you’re almost certainly going to lose.)
“There’s some unknown amount of money coming from the DOJ, and a bunch of poker players who are basically making bets on how big that number will be, and where it might appear. Some of those bets will pay off; others won’t. That’s gambling for you.”
Whether you're a buyer or seller, it's a good read. Check it out here.
3) Hip Hop Holdem Only Gets Better With Age
We love High Stakes Poker and all but there isn’t a poker TV show as perpetually rewatchable as the full-on masterpiece that is/was Hip Hop Holdem.
It's not really poker, sure, but it does have some of the most amazing table banter ever heard.
Start with this clip of Biz Markie getting seriously gassed over hitting a gutshot on the turn. If you don’t lose an afternoon down the Hip Hop Holdem YouTube rabbit hole, you're a better man than us.