Daily 3-Bet: Ladies Due, Full Tilt Value, Biz Gassed!
5 December 2012
Stick-figure science by Joanne Bartley.
The PokerListings Daily 3-Bet is a hidden masterpiece revealed by scraping off several layers of heavy-handed afternoon poker news brush strokes.
Any suggestions for a future 3-Bet, feel free to drop a note in the comments.
Today in the 3-Bet we find some pretty solid evidence to support the idea a woman will win this year’s PCA main event, a detailed look at the real value of your US Full Tilt account balance and a sweet, sweet Biz Markie flashback.
1) A Female Player Will Win the PCA Main Event… Probably
Fluctuating wildly over the last 18 months, from around 85c on the dollar to supposedly 30-40c and even lower, Kaplan quoted Dan Fleyshman as pegging the current value at about 70-80c on the dollar.
Digging deeper and comparing it to other “alternative asset” markets like court judgments and Madoff investments, Salmon says 70-80c is a little high but fitting for a “gamble” like poker:
“... I can’t see how it makes sense to buy claims at 70 or 80 cents on the dollar — not unless the claimant is already lawyered up and has a clear path to recovery…
“But this is poker — a world where money always feels a bit unreal. (If you’re conscious of the value of the money you’re gambling in a poker game, you’re almost certainly going to lose.)
“There’s some unknown amount of money coming from the DOJ, and a bunch of poker players who are basically making bets on how big that number will be, and where it might appear. Some of those bets will pay off; others won’t. That’s gambling for you.”
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