Daily 3-Bet: Elie Sentence, Silver Signal, Liv Gets Physical
October 04, 2012
More prison time is doled out in the ongoing Black Friday case.
The PokerListings Daily 3-Bet is a three-part plea agreement struck under the harsh overhead glare of the poker afternoon interrogation room.
Any suggestions for a future 3-Bet can be left in the comments.
Today on the 3-Bet we take a look at the latest prison sentence handed down in the Department of Justice’s ongoing Black Friday indictment, new thoughts from master statistician Nate Silver about why poker’s good for you, plus the beautiful Liv Boeree appealing to young women to follow her footsteps and study physics.
1) Payment Processor Chad Elie Sentenced to 5 Months
Sentences have been coming down for individuals implicated in the Department Of Justice’s Black Friday actions and the latest person hit by the book is former payment processor Chad Elie.
Destiny Davis, Elie's wife.
Elie pled guilty to one count of bank fraud back in March but wasn’t handed a sentence until this Wednesday.
US District Attorney Preet Bharara spoke at the sentencing hearing, describing how Elie deceived banks into accepting online poker payments by disguising them as things like “payday loans” and “Internet membership clubs”.
And if five months seems like a slap on the wrist Elie was also forced to forfeit roughly $25 million seized in his payment processing accounts and pay an additional $500,000 penalty.
But the worst thing for Elie has to be spending five months away from his wife, Playboy Playmate Destiny Davis.
The Wall Street Journal quoted Elie Wednesday as saying, “I am just really sorry, I really regret my actions.”
In 2009 Nate Silver was named one of the world’s 100 most influential people by Time Magazine after correctly predicting the winners of 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election.
Still, according to Silver, people generally suck at making predictions.
Nate Silver at the WSOP.
Silver argues that we can get better and that playing poker is one of the easiest ways to do it.
In a recent interview about his new book The Signal and the Noise Silver suggests that poker provides the kind of feedback that’s vital to learning how to make good predictions.
To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.
I talked at an investment fund recently. Since they know there's a lot of noise in stock-market data they actually have their employees play a lot of poker. There's also a lot of randomness and luck in poker, but at least it gets to the long run a little bit faster. So developing an intuitive sense--one that is honed and refined through experience--for what's meaningful and when you've gotten enough data to say "this represents a change in my business environment" or equally important, to say "this doesn't." In fact, it might be more important not to get freaked out about one bad month's worth of sales.
By playing games you can artificially speed up your learning curve to develop the right kind of thought processes. You can look at principles of cases that are more idealized, like poker or sports, where they're these laboratory experiments still occurring in real-world situations, and seeing what works well for people in those fields and applying those same kind of attitudes and habits and aptitudes to a business case.
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