Daily 3-Bet: Cantu Avenges, Koroknai DIsaster, In Nate We Trust

Nate Silver
Election guru Nate Silver.

The PokerListings Daily 3-Bet is an unheralded, pseudo-scientific buzz prediction model that could very well blow the doors off the afternoon poker news status quo.

Call it Pokerball, if you're putting a name on it.

Today in the 3-Bet we find Brandon Cantu gaining a measure of revenge for his WSOPE loss to Jonathan Aguiar, October Niner Andras Koroknai getting the gears from his countrymen for his WSOP blunder and election prognosticator/poker grinder Nate Silver getting his due for his impeccable election predictions.

1) Cantu Avenges Aguiar Ruling in Heads-Up Rematch

Brandon Cantu
Small measure of revenge for Cantu.

In case you missed it, poker pros Brandon Cantu and Jon Aguiar were involved in a semi-melodramatic plotline at the 2012 WSOPE.

Battling heads-up for the €10,450 No-Limit Hold’em Mixed Max title until casino closing time, the match was delayed for a full day so both could play in the the Main Event.

Cantu felt he was a victim of a bad ruling that allowed for Aguiar to regroup and get help from his poker friends.

After Aguiar did go on to win, Cantu claimed he was robbed by the WSOP and pleaded for a rematch for the difference in prize money.

Surprisingly, Aguiar agreed and the two played it out at the Aria in Las Vegas last night for the $130,000 (the bracelet was off the table).

Cantu won the rematch, gaining some measure of revenge, but as details come out it seems neither had much of their own action anyway. According to Aguiar he only had 18%.

Cantu, who called his performance before the ruling “one of the best in WSOP history,” has yet to weigh in.

2) Hungarian “Poker Man” Andras Koroknai Defends Six-Bet Shove

Andras Koroknai
Poker man.

Called one of the biggest meltdowns in WSOP history, Hungarian Andras Koroknai busted out of the Main Event final table last month in ignominious fashion with a six-bet QJ shove snapped off by eventual champion Greg Merson with AK.

Needless to say, Koroknai has been filleted in the forums for his play.

The Budapest Times in Hungary seems to have finally noticed and got in the act too, posting an article today outlining the “Poker Man’s $1.6m disaster."

In his first interview since the bustout Koroknai defended his play (kind of), saying he thought Merson was playing loose:

“In hindsight it may have been a little irresponsible but it felt like the right decision at the time,” he said. “It was an amazing experience. I will definitely be back and win it next time.”

Seems like he's none the worse for wear over it, at least. Also seems like "poker man" is a common term in Hungary, which drastically pushes it up the scale of places to visit immediately.

3) Nate Silver: The Smartest Man in America

Nate Silver
Have stats, will profit.

Sure, Barack Obama won the election on Tuesday night, but there may be an even bigger winner given how things played out:

New York Times blogger and former poker grinder Nate Silver, who we interviewed at the 2011 World Series of Poker.

A former baseball nerd and statistician who now runs the FiveThirtyEight political blog, Silver may have been the most talked about man in America over the last few months for his statistical forecasting of an Obama election win.

Despite some almost obscene attacks from right-wing blowhards, Nate held his ground with his unique statistical model and called for a 90% chance of an Obama victory.

When the results came in, not only was Silver correct in predicting the win he nailed every single state prediction.

All of them.

If you were smart, like most poker players, and put your trust in Nate’s read, you might have even profited:

It's going to pay off for Silver, too, when sales of his new book The Signal and the Noise explode.

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Grant 2012-11-08 21:10:15

Love Nate Silver made me a lot of money.

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