Tuesday, April 15, 2008

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Bottom pair might be good heads-up

By Martin Östman

It's hard to know what the best online poker players think when they make thousand-dollar decisions. We can only guess what goes on in their minds.

Case in point: an interesting No-Limit Hold'em clash yesterday between high-stakes regulars Zebryck and DaEvils on Full Tilt Poker.

In particular the following hand, tracked by the PokerListings.com MarketPulse section, which we'll look at from DaEvils' point of view.

Full Tilt Poker Game #6033079553 TABLE: Vasari (heads-up) $200/$400 - No-Limit Hold'em - Mon Apr 14 2008 - 2:38pm (ET)

Table Setup

Seat 1: DaEvils ($40,400)
Seat 2: Zebryck ($44,598.50)
Zebryck posts the small blind of $200
DaEvils posts the big blind of $400
The button is in seat #2

Pre-flop

Zebryck raises to $1,200

DaEvils looks down at 8 4; not a particularly great starting hand but at least it's suited. Maybe Zebryck has raised a lot previously in the game and DaEvils wants to put his foot down. Anyway, DaEvils decides to take command.

DaEvils raises to $4,000
Zebryck calls $2,800

Flop 4 7 5

The flop could definitely be worse. DaEvils has bottom pair and a gut-shot straight draw and chances are good his opponent missed the flop. And if he didn't, DaEveils probably has nine good outs: four 6s, three 8s and two 4s. He decides the hand is worth a bet.

DaEvils bets $5,000
zebryck calls $5,000

Turn 4 7 5 J

Why did Zebryck call? He could have a flush or straight draw, but most high-stakes players would raise with that sort of hand, so probably not.

Zebryck could also have a pair not good enough for a raise but not bad enough to throw away. Or maybe he got lucky and caught a straight or a set on the flop.

DaEvils checks
zebryck bets $9,600

Zebruck makes a half-pot bet. What does that mean? Zebryck might value bet with a pair or maybe he has a draw, senses weakness and tries to take a stab at the pot. Or is he bluffing?

It's tough to say what DaEvils thinks in this tough situation, but obviously he only beats a total bluff and he can't be sure of what to do.

DaEvils raises to $31,400, and is all-in

DaEvils makes a bold raise. It could shake off a pair or a draw and whatever Zebryck holds besides a straight or a set, it must be a tough call to make.

Zebryck calls $21,800

Showdown

DaEvils shows 8 4
Zebryck shows A A

River 4 7 5 J 8

DaEvils shows two pair, eights and fours
zebryck shows a pair of aces
DaEvils wins the pot ($80,799.50) with two pair, eights and fours

Summary

Zebryck played this hand quite deceptively and it was hard to put him on two aces. Maybe DaEvils overplayed his 4 8, but the last raise was good in my opinion.

If Zebryck had a pair on the flop, he could be forced to lay down the best hand. And even if he called with a pair, DaEvils would still have nine outs. Nine good outs, as it turned out.

To see more hand histories from their session, and more of the biggest Hold'em pots won online over the last day, week and month, jump over to the PokerListings.com MarketPulse section.

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