The Poker Reporter Blog

Thoughts from the Felt: My Thought Process

Created By: Sean Lind Posted in: The Poker Reporter Blog, Thoughts from the Felt
2009 Mar 14
Richard Kellet

The other day I made a decent series of calls against an opponent for a nice pot. After the hand some of the other players asked me how I knew the other guy was bluffing.

I don't like talking strategy at the poker table, so I told them that I'd have to sit down and think about it to give them an answer.

Truth is, I knew exactly what I'd been doing, and why I'd been doing it. The only thinking I needed to do was how to put it into words.

Here's how things played out:

  • I'm on the button with Q Q.
  • Buddy McBluff makes a standard (live poker standard of 7x the big blind) preflop raise.
  • I call, taking us heads-up to the flop.
  • Flop comes 5 A 9.
  • He bets three-quarters pot.
  • I call.
  • Turn T.
  • He bets three-quarters pot.
  • I call.
  • River is 4.
  • He moves all-in for one and a quarter times the pot.
  • I snap-call and show Q Q.
  • He mucks.
  • I take the pot.
  • I write this article.

On the surface, he bet three times with an ace on board; I called with queens. If you didn't know any information about either player or the situation, it would be safe to assume that I'm a calling station and got lucky.

If you still want to believe that after reading this blog, please do so, and be sure to come sit at my table when you get a chance.

My Table Image

One of the two most important factors of this hand was my table image at the time of the play. I was up two buy-ins at the time, playing strong poker. I had been talking poker a bit, and one of the players recognized me from having read a lot of my articles.

I was active, aggressive and solid, having made no large mistakes and a few strong plays up to that point.

Michael Schulze
Always be aware of your table image.

Generally at live games I value-bet hard and strong. More often than not players are willing to pay you out if you bet large in these games. I like to build massive pots with big hands, and am never one to shy away from a little action.

His Table Image

I'm not exactly sure what my opponent thought his table image was, but the way I saw him was as a player with too much gamble, and an ego feeding the belief that he was a much better player than he actually was.

Most players who think they are very strong will play weak to moderate hands out of position, rationalizing the play with the thought that they can just outplay their opponent post-flop.

He was good enough that this may have been true against many of the mouth breathers who play cards on a Friday night, but against any serious student of the game, he really stood only a small chance of success.

My Thoughts During the Hand

I choose to flat-call the queens preflop for deception purposes. The player raising is a player prone to bluffing, and hero-calls. The best way I can get his stack is to let him hang himself. By just calling he puts my range as:

  • Pocket pairs 22-TT
  • Suited connectors 4-5 - K-Q
  • A-Q
  • Possible A-K
  • Possible suited A-J, A-T

There is a chance I have something like a suited one-gapper, but he feels my range is mostly what I just listed. He suspects that I reraise any pocket pair JJ or higher with my position, the only exception being AA. AA is strong enough that many players will slow-play it here.

The Flop

When the flop comes 5 A 9, he is now almost certain I don't have AA. This also means that I'll only call or play back at a c-bet with an ace or a flush draw. He feels that almost the entirety of my range will fold here, even if I have QQ or KK.

When I just call his bet, he is now sure I'm on a draw, or a weak pocket pair. His sense is that if I had an ace I would have raised the flop to protect against a flush draw.

The only hand he's worried about here is an ace with the flush draw. Anything else he feels I will fold. If he has something like JJ (I never got to see his hand), he's ahead of most of my range at this point as well.

I don't know exactly what he has, but the only hand I need to really worry about here is an ace.

I feel that he's c-betting almost every flop in this situation, and the majority of those times I'm well ahead of him. If I raise, the only hand that ever calls me is a hand that has me beat; therefore, I make an easy call.

On the turn he bets again. The bets are starting to get large as the pot grows. The turn card is a blank as far as both of us are concerned. I flat-call again. He's now fully duped into thinking I have a flush draw.

My line of thinking hasn't changed much from the flop here. Although it is possible that he has an ace, the way I've played my hand makes him believe that I only have a draw, or a weak hand. I feel he's going to bet any two cards here against me. Also, his bet sizing leads me to lean more toward a bluff.

Arnaud Mattern
Some plays are just easy to make.

This player isn't afraid of making large bets, and understands that I'm not either. If he's value-betting here with an ace, it would only make sense for him to be betting full pot. If he assumes that I'm weak or drawing, and he really is ahead, he will want to charge me, and will feel that I'll call a full pot bet.

I feel that he's trying to disguise a bluff as a value bet by (uncharacteristically) betting less.

The river is an absolute blank. If I wasn't sure on the flop I was ahead, I'm 100% sure on the river, as he insta-pushes all-in for 1.25 times the pot.

If he was a beginner I'd assume the insta-push means he has a set. But this player, who somewhat understands the level of poker I'm playing, would never make this bet unless it's a bluff.

If he actually had a set, he has the nuts, and would want to make sure that he gets paid. An all-in overbet is too scary a bet to get paid on, so we can rule a set - or even two pair - right out.

Since I didn't believe he had an ace on the flop or the turn, it makes no sense to change my mind now, especially since the action on the river is much more fitting to a bluff than any other possible hand.

The final nail in the coffin was his physical play. He was acting and looking very strong the entire time. No hesitation, portraying heavy confidence and intimidation. Straight out of the first chapter of Caro's Book of Tells, this was a simple case of strong meaning weak.

I snap-called the all-in bet on the river and immediately turned over my queens, not considering for even a second that I could be beat. My opponent sat wide-eyed in a fit of tilt, mucking his hand before leaving the poker room for the night.

The money I won in this hand was great, but after the whole table watched the hand play out, I knew that for the rest of the night not a single player on the table would have the gall to try and bluff me. When you know how the entire table is playing against you, poker becomes a really easy game.

Comments

13

  1. KC

    2009-04-02

    When there is a big pot, I usually like to make the person who initiated action show his/her cards before I, as the caller, show my hand. This is one of those exception situations.

    Not that long ago, I had a similar situation against a player whom I often play against in tournaments. I made a very confident call for all of my chips with a very marginal hand(yes, I had a strong read). I immediately turned over my cards as if there was no doubt in my mind my pair was good as if to say "Yep, I can read your mind."

    Ever since then, the guy has been gunning for me at every opportunity. When you have somebody gunning for you, it's a good thing. I can pretty much get him to call any value bet I want now. He wants to show he can outplay me and he's desperate to make the miracle call against me now.

    Sometimes, you have to think about the big picture. You showing your cards here was definitely about the big picture and setting a tone for the rest of the night. Besides, you already knew what he had - why make it obvious to everybody else?

    Great article!!!!

    KC

  2. B from the AK

    2009-03-23

    Thanks for the reply. I look forward to more of your in game thought process. I think reading your posts will only help me out.

  3. FlashJ

    2009-03-20

    Good article, and good followup to the comments. I stand behind your play, when you have what you consider a solid read you play it... it's not calling station, every once in awhile you have a read so solid you have to follow your instincts, and this is why. Nice work

  4. Sean Lind

    2009-03-20

    Hey B
    My thoughts on the roll:
    A) once I bust him he's probably not re-loading. Thus information is next to useless.
    B) I already know I have him beat, past that any hand he has is a bluff, some just have semi-bluff status. The details aren't really important to me here, as I take the same line regardless of him having JJ or two rags.
    C) I don't want the table thinking I'm a calling station. With that image you lose the value of players bluffing at you. I want all the value I can get, a calling station image will only hurt my bottom line.

  5. B from the AK

    2009-03-19

    i like your thought process but what i don't like is how you rolled your hand over so quickly knowing you had the best hand.
    I have made this mistake before in b&m and it hasn't necessarily worked against me but any time you can have more info against an opponent the better. for ex. "if he had JJ and turned a hand that has showdown value esp. against a missed flush draw into a bluff" this would be useful info. down the road.

    and secondly a needling him for sure....but wouldn't you rather have the whole table thinking you're a fish and a station who got lucky by calling the all-in on the river for 1.25 X pot against a bluff? just my opinion.

  6. Sean Lind

    2009-03-18

    Thanks bro. I'm sure I'll see you around the tables again soon enough.

  7. BERNY

    2009-03-18

    Unless another person recognized you at the poker table, that person was me!
    Nice meeting you by the way.
    Keep up the good work.

  8. Mike One

    2009-03-18

    Nice Article

  9. Sean Lind

    2009-03-17

    I don't totally agree with making him have to show his cards. I would have been shocked if I had lost the pot, I had 100% confidence in my read. It's not too often you can ever be overly confident at a poker table, this was one of those times.

    If I purposely wait until he turns over his hand, I'm saying that I need to see his cards, because I'm not sure if I win or not. The way I rolled over my hand was more of a needle, as it told him that I already knew I had one the pot.

    If I wait, he can write it off as me being a calling station who got married to his hand, he'd think it was a good bluff, but at a bad time. The way it played out, he (and everyone else at the table) knew he got outplayed.

    And mike, against any typical player in a typical setting, I think 60% is even low. Not many players will ever three barrel-all-in if they can't beat QQ in that situation. I'm an avid preacher and practitioner of it's better to be bluffed than to make a hero call and lose your stack. But for the reasons stated in the article, I would have been absolutely shocked if I would have lost that pot.

  10. Mike

    2009-03-16

    This article is so typical of mid-level "pros" who over-analyze. The truth here is that he could just as easily have A-rag as JJ, I put him on jacks at the beginning of the article. The fact that your queens were good doesn't justify this article. And, why in the world would you not make him show his cards? That's a huge mistake. I'd say you lose this board at least 60% of the time.

  11. chopochka

    2009-03-15

    I would say it is probably wrong to call down in this situation. he could have easily hit a 2 pair or a weak ace. Believing too much in high-pocket pair until the river is a common mistake.

  12. cal shipken jr.

    2009-03-15

    you are a calling station who got lucky. I'll see you at the tables. Next stop, value town.

  13. bill

    2009-03-15

    I like your articles, and the whole website's for that matter.
    If you made a mistake, it was revealing your cards before his(sort of rubbing his face in it) and missing seeing what he really had. Since he was the bettor in the hand he was obligated to show first, your rubbing it in could have been how you rolled yours over.

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