Strategy Snapshot: A Questionable Value Bet?

Another day, another snapshot, another nosebleed hand involving everybody's favorite online superstar Tom "durrrr" Dwan.

Today he shows us that sometimes it's OK to just call - especially if you flop a set in position against an aggressive opponent.

The end result this time: a $428,151 pot.

Game: $500/$1,000 No-Limit Hold'em, Full Tilt Poker

Players:

lady marmelade: $287,077
Tom "durrrr" Dwan: $247,120
John Juanda $129,397
Phil Ivey: $214,771
lolzcapaneo: $211,077

The Setup

lady marmelade folds under the gun and durrrr raises to $3,000 from the cut-off. John Juanda makes the call on the button and Phil Ivey calls from the small blind.

lolzcapaneo now reraises from the big blind to $16,500. durrrr makes the call and everyone else folds.

Heads-up to a 3 T 7 flop. lolzcapaneo bets out $27,500 and durrrr makes the call. The turn drops the K and lolzcapaneo leads for $46,500. Again, durrrr just flat-calls.

The river comes the 5. lolzcapaneo shoves all-in for $119,577 and durrrr snap-calls.

When all is said and done, lolzcapaneo shows J J for one pair and durrrr shows 7 7 for the flopped set, which is by far and away good in the $428,151 pot.

(Watch the hand in the PL.com Hand Replayer.)

Chips A'hoy.

The Breakdown

The hand starts out with durrrr making a standard play with 7 7. He is in the cut-off in a five-handed game with a pocket pair, so he brings it in for an easy raise.

John Juanda makes the call on the button with an unknown hand, as does Phil Ivey from the small blind. Both players likely have some sort of speculative hand and hopes of playing a multiway pot.

lolzcapaneo reraises from the big blind to $16,500 with J J. His bigger reraise discourages multiway action and charges his opponents for the privilege of playing in position.

durrrr makes the call because either he will see the pot multiway with a good multiway hand, or he will take a flop heads-up and in position.

Everyone else ends up folding and they do end up taking the flop heads-up.

When the flop comes 3 T 7 lolzcapaneo bets out $27,500. With the initiative gained from reraising before the flop, combined with the fact that he has an overpair, it makes this bet automatic.

durrrr elects to flat-call in position with a set of sevens. By just smooth-calling rather than raising, durrrr allows his opponent to continue betting with the entirety of his range - both worse made hands and bluffs.

When the turn comes K lolzcapaneo leads for $46,500. This play is still for value - I think he believes durrrr has a hand like a weak pocket pair e.g. 66-99 and he wants to extract value from it.

Durrrr again chooses to just flat-call for the same reason. He knows the K is a good barrel card for lolzcapaneo because it brings another overcard to the board.

If he had been bluffing, he will continue it with this card. Also he could be value betting A-K or similar. Either way, by smooth-calling he keeps all of these possibilities alive for lolzcapaneo.

At least they didn't use another insufferable durrrrr pun.

The river comes 5 and lolzcapaneo ships all-in for $119,577 ... a bet I am not sure I really like. Is it for value or is it a bluff?

I mean, I know durrrr is very capable of calling river bets light, but is he really going to put in over 200BB with a hand that J J beats? If it's not for value, it must be a bluff. And is durrrr ever really going to fold anything that is ahead of J J?

I think it is far more likely that durrrr calls with worse than he folds better, so I guess lolzcapaneo was making an extremely thin value bet.

As to whether that is a good plan or not, it really depends on how the game had been playing and their previous history together. It is entirely possible that lolzcapaneo has a specific read to make this bet.

durrrr, of course, makes the easy snap-call. With his set he is miles ahead of even lolzcapaneo's value betting range here. The set is good and durrrr is shipped the $428,151 pot.

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More Strategy Snapshots:

• Strategy Snapshot: Dwan durrrrrowned by river
• Strategy Snapshot: Dwan durrrrains Kelopuro
• Strategy Snapshot: Ivey Kills Kelopuro
  
• Strategy Snapshot: Armed and Dwangerous