Strategy Snapshot: OnTheRize Deflated

Online unknown vandAAgnog makes a marginal cap-game move but god-modes the turn to OnTheRize's dismay in this edition of Strategy Snapshot.

Players:

Seat 1: MrSmokey1 ($150,827)
Seat 4: OnTheRize ($81,843)
Seat 5: jimmie23 ($100,000)
Seat 6: just_the_nuts ($92,074)
Seat 7: vandAAgnog ($89,587)
Seat 8: Gus Hansen ($61,297)

The button is in seat #6

Game: $500/$1,000 No-Limit Hold'em, Full Tilt Poker, $30,000 Cap

(Hand history and stats from MarketPulse Biggest Pots section.)

The Setup

This hand comes to us from a six-handed game of $500/$1,000 with a $30,000 cap.

Cap games are unique because the maximum amount a player can lose in a hand is 30 BBs. This completely changes the dynamic of the game.

All players are effectively playing short-stacked with 30 BBs as opposed to the normal 100 BBs or more. This limits the amount one can lose, but it also limits the amount of play in a hand.

With most hands getting all-in either pre-flop or on the flop, play on the finesse streets (the turn and river) is almost nonexistent.

The hand begins with OnTheRize raising to $2,800. It is folded to vandAAgnog who flat-calls from the small blind. Gus Hansen makes the call as well out of the big blind.

Gus: Drawn in by the pot odds, but ultimately lets it go.

They go three-handed to a 3 5 9 flop. Both vandAAgnog and Gus Hansen check and OnTheRize continuation bets $4,400. vandAAgnog now check-raises to $14,500. Gus folds and OnTheRize goes into the tank before eventually calling the extra $10,100.

The turn drops the 4 and vandAAgnog bets $12,700, which brings us to our 30 BB cap in the hand. OnTheRize makes the call. vandAAgnog shows 6 7 for the nut straight and OnTheRize turns up 4 5 for two pair.

The river bricks A and vandAAgnog's straight remains good for the $62,797.

The Breakdown

OnTheRize makes a steal-raise with his 5 4. He is in mid/late position and hopes to win himself the $1,500 in blinds - who wouldn't? If you could steal blinds once an hour in this game, you would make a king's ransom.

vandAAgnog does not comply and decides to protect his small blind by calling with 6 7. The flat-call with suited connectors seems like a marginal play in a cap game.

I believe three-betting is a better option than calling. Calling leaves you out of position with a hand that largely depends on implied odds. Since this is a cap game, the stacks are effectively short, and thus the implied odds are diminished.

vandAAgnog may be planning to call and check-raise any board he gets a piece of. Whatever the reason, vandAAgnog flats and Gus, drawn in by the growing pot odds, calls as well in the big blind.

The flop comes 3 5 9. vandAAgnog checks, as does Gus. OnTheRize makes a standard c-bet and vandAAgnog decides to semi-bluff with his double gut-shot straight draw by raising to $14,500. This bet is designed to win the pot immediately. He knows that if called, he will need to improve on the turn.

OnTheRize is not fooled by the semi-bluff and makes a sick call. He may have believed that a hand that beats him would have either three-bet pre-flop or chosen to flat-call the flop in order to trap the turn.

With two pair, OnTheRize is never going to fold getting 3-1.

The check-raise line in this hand looks like a bluff. OnTheRize correctly makes the call. Calling allows his opponent to continue on the turn with his entire range.

If OnTheRize were to raise this flop, vandAAgnog would fold all his worse hands. By flat-calling, OnTheRize maximizes his expectation those times his pair of fives are good.

Unfortunately for OnTheRize, vandAAgnog god-modes the 4 on the turn. vandAAgnog hits his money card and bets the cap of $12,700.

OnTheRize, who is probably not going to fold no matter what, makes the call with two pair. After calling the flop raise he is committed to this hand 100%.

After the flop raise there are 30 BBs already in the pot. His opponent can bet another 15 BBs; seldom after calling a flop raise is he going to fold getting 3-1. With two pair he is never going to fold getting 3-1.

He calls and unluckily finds himself behind to the turned straight. The river doesn't bring redemption and vandAAgnog earns the pot thanks to a little balls and a little luck.

OnTheRize can at least console himself with the fact that he made a very good call on the flop.

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