At my table I recognized three players, Freddy Deeb.
For the first 45 minutes on the table, Freddy and I were pretty much taking turns stealing blinds and I occasionally re-popped him when I felt that he wasn't letting me open as much as I wanted to.
Freddy Deeb is an amazing tournament player. Often you see all these guys on TV that are really blown up to look a lot better than they are but Freddy Deeb is not one of them. He's very solid and plays the situation very well. Unfortunately, I didn't know that until after he owned my soul :(.
Or maybe I owned my own soul? I don't know, you be the judge. At 1500/3000 on the EXACT bubble (one more till the money) I made it 7700 from UTG with T♣ 7♣. It's folded all the way around to Freddy Deeb in the BB and he makes it 38k to go with about 130k behind.
I have about 400k at this point and decide to ship it in and he insta-calls me with aces. Now, before you make judgments on how bad of a play this is, there are a couple of things to consider.
First of all, I remember thinking in my head that this is the spot where Freddy Deeb is going to repop me. I envisioned that had it been folded around to Freddy Deeb he would reraise me with any two cards.
Also his reraise amount kind of said "NO, you're not the table captain, I'm the table captain, don't raise MY blinds. Please fold." Obviously I know that Freddy Deeb doesn't care about the bubble but he might think that I do.
Sometimes I think about things way too deep and eventually sway away from my initial read (and it's usually when I think I should fold and then convince myself to call). This wasn't one of those situations, I was actually pretty confident he would fold.
In my head, shoving seemed like the best play, and there was nothing I could do to change that, I was already decided. Also I should say that I had been raising in early position a lot so he probably correctly gave my UTG raise as much value as a button raise.
Had I thought about the situation on a simple and more practical level that a guy who likes to see a lot of flops is re-raising my UTG raise from the BB nine-handed, I might have released my ten high. After this hand, my image was crushed and I was getting repopped almost half the time I opened.
I finally took a stand with AJ suited and ran into AK and that was it for me. Finished 55th :(. Overall obviously I'm quite disappointed. At least I was smart enough to swap some % with Isaac Baron (westmenloaa). He's an amazing player and one of the few players I would ever swap % with.
Post-Tourney Prop Betting
The next day after the tournament was over we all got really drunk and Antonio Esfandiari and I started making ridiculous/random prop bets. Anything from roshambo, to me betting that his friend couldn't get 10 people to lay on the ground within two minutes.
It was all just for fun. I think he ended up winning a few hundred Euros overall. Then we made a much more serious bet, for considerably more money. The whole bet started when I was talking about a story I heard where a lady made several million in Vegas throwing craps by perfecting the number she wanted to throw at a very high success rate.
Then I thought to myself, hey if a human being could roll dice with the same outcome almost every time, I bet a machine could perfect a roll or flip. So I proposed this question to the crowd:
If you could build a machine whose purpose was to flip coins and every time it flipped the coin EVERY variable including but not limited to room pressure, gravity, wind, etc etc. stayed the same, would the coin flip the same way and land on the same side every time?
Initially the crowd seemed split, half of them thinking it would, the other half thinking it wouldn't. I bet that it would.flip on the same side every time given the circumstances. Antonio bet that it wouldn't and seemed scarily confident.
Things to note:
- Coin has to be flipped from at least 1 ft
- The coin, machine and floor stay the same. There is no damage to either of them that would result in a slight difference in the flip NO VARIABLES
- This is theoretical, the machine doesn't actually have to be built (but I still think it can be)
Originally I was going to bet 1000 Euros with Antonio but after hearing that my friends Johannes Straussman and Ryan Daut wanted to take a piece of my action on the bet, how could I not bump it up to an even 10k?
For those of you that don't know Johannes or Ryan, they both piss excellence. I've never seen either of them make a prop bet unless they were sure they were going to win or had a significant edge.
In order to conclude the bet we have to ask a physics professor at a well-respected university (Harvard, Yale, etc). I've been too lazy to actually ask but I'm sure I will get on it in the next couple of months while we're both in Vegas.
If any of my blog readers have an opinion about this, please feel free to post it in comments :) I'd love to hear your reasoning, especially if you think I'm wrong.
-- Sorel Mizzi
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