I didn't realize until you put it up that I actually gave you the option of calling, which with the cards up actually would've been quite effective. I still don't know what the right answer is between bet/calling, or check/raising in your spot if you decide to rule out folding, which is probably the best play. If you decide not to fold, I think it's between bet/calling, and check/shoving, as I think I have the easiest call if you just jam 10K into a 6750 pot on turn, as it almost completely narrows your range to combo draws and hands weaker than mine. It was a really unusual and awkward spot for both of us.

FWIW, here was my thinking behind the hand, as I'm not thrilled with how I played it: preflop, your stack was really awkward for me to raise, as it was too deep to raise call and raise folding with Js is really gross. On the flop your bet seemed big, like you definitely connected with the flop. I decided to rule out all air and overcard and draw possibilitites, and put your likely range at anything from an 8, to 99-AA. At this point I considered making a bluffy raise to like 4500 and calling a shove but I decided that might fold out all worse hands than me and only get you to put it in when you beat me. Since theres not too much improvement for your range, I thought you either have me or you dont, and I decided to call and see the turn and how you react to it. You were certainly capable of check shoving the turn with a hand better than mine, but after the 2d peeled, I decided I would just bet/call turn small perhaps making it look like you have fold equity and my hand might not be so strong and having you shove all of your range (pretty optimistic thinking).

Playing one table of live poker sometimes makes you over-think things. Online in the heat of the moment I probably 3bet and reevaluate. The tilt factor online is so much greater I think you can even get away with raise/calling in a spot like that since your villain's range is not set in stone and occasionally they'll be getting out of line because they're bored/don't care, etc. Its marginal, but it's a spot I often take vs aggressive players, especially since even if I'm out of that one, there's 6+ other games that I still have to focus on. Ultimately, I'm not thrilled with the way I played my hand, and if I could do it over again I probably would've just three-bet pre and folded to a shove. Sure, AK will be the most common combination of your range, but I don't think you will hardly ever get out of line there (rightfully so), and will probably 4bet me with a range of AK+, QQ+. Congrats on your finish in the Aussie Millions - I only wish you went deeper so I could've had a drunken final table sweat.

Matt,

Great to read your first post. Looking forward to more of these!

I think you have to smooth call here. A couple possibilities:
It is entirely possible that he was holding AK, AQ and was conservative preflop since he knows the type of player that you are. When you bet out the flop, he could easily be floating you -- thinking that you might just have missed. When you check the turn, he thinks his hand is good and senses some weakness on your part and tries to simply steal the pot.

Or, yes, he might have hit his set or has an overpair. In that case, you do have redraw outs and you are pretty much obligated to call with the money in the pot and the potential money that can be won.

Just call...he may have hit a set...think he would have raised you on the flop with an overpair...just call and really hope to hit the flush.

Matt pwns all, we can all just admit that. Obv. Matt wins the hand, smokes a victory blunt, and goes on to pwn noobs! Woot, 420 Pwns my soul - Will

Lets assume that your opponent indeed has an overpair to the board. If you check on the turn then they guy will likely think that a. you were bluffing on the flop and now may or might not have a draw and/or overcards but either way you hope to see the river for free. b. you have a monster (set or the A-5 for a wheel) and plan to check raise c. top pair and don't really know what to do in case he bets.

I say either check and if he bets fold/call depending on your feel combined with size of bet.

or

Bet small so that you are not committed but might still get good odds to call in case he makes a small raise. If he makes a big raise you probably should fold (but again I am not there at the table with all the information that you have!)

sounds to me like you were both holding 8s. Had you checked at open, chances are he would have raised in your place, but he felt that your raise was a fair pot for an 8 pair, and they weren't worth more than that at the time. When the 2 came in and you checked, he knew you were only holding a pair, and it's possible at that stage he had two pair, 8s / 2s.