The Poker Reporter Blog

If You Fold, You Probably Will Not Win

Created By: Yakshi Posted in: The Poker Reporter Blog, Cold Hard Facts
2008 Oct 7
John Guth

Most of the world's poker pros haven't learned the basic lesson in today's title - except for Daniel Negreanu, whose pockets are stuffed with $5 bills and who lives in a mansion on a hill surrounded by rattlesnakes.

The mathematical premise is fairly simple. At your average nine-player full-ring table, if the cards are distributed in a completely random fashion, the chance of you winning any particular hand is somewhere around 19%.

So when you're in the big blind, and the guy under the gun folds (???), you're already sitting at 26%. And when the next guy folds, the chances of you winning against the remaining six players are exactly one in three.

Sometimes to your amazement you will see everyone fold to the button. In that spot, your winning percentage has rocketed to 104%. Sounds like a sure thing, right? It is.

No matter what the button does, three-bet him silly, then triple barrel him like a hillbilly with a shotgun facing down the meter reader, because you have already won pre-flop. A mathematically sound player will crush a "feel" player every single time.

Comments

2

  1. dartmerc

    2009-02-11

    Wow. Just wow.

  2. guy

    2008-11-13

    sketchy

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