The Poker Reporter Blog

Dwan 'Posterizes' Greenstein, Eastgate on HSP

Created By: Daniel Skolovy Posted in: The Poker Reporter Blog, Strategy Snapshots
2009 Mar 10
Tom Dwan

The second episode of Season 5 of High Stakes Poker aired on Sunday, and as you might have guessed, durrrr played another hand that had everyone talking.

This one saw a family pot. The online phenom turned his made top pair into a super sick deep-stacked bluff, successfully getting two players to fold better hands, to the tune of a $133,500 pot.

Players:

Barry Greenstein

Tom "durrrr" Dwan

David Benyamine

Eli Elezra

Ilari "Ziigmund" Sahamies

Daniel Negreanu

Peter Eastgate (small blind)

Doyle Brunson (big blind)

Game: High Stakes Poker Season 5, $400/$800 blinds with a $200 ante

The Setup

The hand (about 38 minutes in) starts out with Barry raising to $2,500. durrrr starts the calling train, and the entire table calls behind him.

They take an eight-way flop of 2 T 2. Eastgate and Doyle check and Barry bets $10,000 into $21,600. durrrr, immediately to Barry's left, raises to $37,300, and everyone folds around to Eastgate, who calls.

Doyle folds and they are three-way to a 7 turn. Both Eastgate and Barry check, and durrrr tanks before firing $104,200.

Peter Eastgate
Not me again?

Eastgate thinks for a while before eventually folding and Barry, after some thought, does the same, forfeiting the $133,500 pot to the always-aggressive Tom "durrrr" Dwan.

The Breakdown

Barry kicks the hand off with a raise under the gun to $2,500 with A A. durrrr makes the call with Q T.

Benyamine calls with 3 3, Eli calls with J 9, Ziigmund calls with 7 6, Daniel calls with K 4, Eastgate calls with 4 2 and Doyle calls with the A 9.

Barry obviously raises because he has the preflop nuts; durrrr makes the call because he's durrrr and has a suited one-gap with Q T; Benyamine calls because he has a pocket pair; and the rest of the table call because the pot odds are just way too sweet to pass up.

When the flop comes 2 T 2, Eastgate checks with his three-of-a-kind crappy kicker, Doyle checks and Barry bets $10,000 into $21,600, or just under half pot.

Barry is already in a tough spot. When you raise under the gun with aces, the last thing you want is to have seven callers.

He throws out a feeler bet to see what's out there. It's not really a bet for information, as there are still a ton of hands in everyone's range that are worse than his that may be willing to call a bet. So it's for value, but it will certainly give him some information.

Directly on Barry's left, durrrr thinks before raising to $37,300.

Now, in the show Gabe Kaplan says that he thinks durrrr got himself into a sticky situation by raising this flop. I tend to disagree - durrrr knows he isn't raising this flop for value, because there are very few worse hands that call.

He also knows that when Barry bets into seven people he is showing a huge amount of strength (i.e. an overpair).

durrrr knows that by raising Barry's showing of strength, he himself is repping even more strength. So he raises the flop in order to either steal it there, or to set up for bigger bluffs on later streets.

Everyone folds around to Eastgate, who chooses to just smooth-call with his triples, bad kicker. For the reasons mentioned above, durrrr is repping a massive hand, and Barry and Doyle are still active behind him.

He probably feels that a third raise is just going to fold out anything worse than his hand and keep in anything better so he chooses to flat. Also his flat shows a metric ton of strength because it's a cold call of two already super strong bets.

Barry Greenstein
I raise for the first time in hours, under the gun and with aces, and the whole table calls. FML

Barry makes the call as well. He has to call $27,300 more in the $100,000+ pot. He knows durrrr is capable of bluffing and he calls here, closing the action. He is hoping his opponent(s) will slow down on the turn.

The turn comes 7 and Eastgate and Barry checks. durrrr second-barrels $104,200 into the $133,500 pot.

durrrr reads the situation incredibly well. Once Eastgate checks and then flat-calls on the flop, he knows that the best possible hand he can have is a weak deuce.

Because he (durrrr) has a ten in his hand it makes tens-full extremely unlikely, and if Eastgate has something like A-2 there is value in raising the flop.

However, Eastgate flats, so his most probable hand is a weak deuce.

durrrr also knows that once Barry bets into seven people and then calls a raise, his most likely hand is a big pocket pair.

He knows too that Barry is the tightest player at the table and by raising him after he leads into seven people, shows a crazy amount of strength.

Then on top of that, when he is called on the flop in two spots, he fires again into two people, continuing to show a huge amount of strength.

His bet is saying, "Although you guys are showing strength by calling my show of strength, I am still willing to play for stacks."

Tom Dwan
Just wondering if you guys ever write about anyone other than me. Get back to me, thx.

He feels that if he can get through Eastgate the pot is his, as Barry is very likely to fold his overpair at this point.

Eastgate does elect to fold after some thought. Again Eastgate looks to be getting outplayed, and I can't say that I disagree.

I don't think he made a mistake in the last hand we talked about, or that he necessarily made a mistake in this one. durrrr reps such a sick amount of strength, and if he calls this bet, the hand isn't over. durrrr is perfectly capable of firing $350,000 on the river as a bluff.

The turn decision is the tough one - you can't call now and then fold to the third barrel on the river. That would be setting money on fire.

So Eastgate elects to fold, which I can't really fault him for against the range that durrrr is repping and how deep the stacks are.

If I had to say what Eastgate's biggest mistake is, I would say that it isn't either of the two hands he played.

It's that he bought in so deep. It is quite apparent that Eastgate is not comfortable playing super deep-stacked poker against the best in the world.

If he had bought in for $100,000, even $200,000, both these hands become a ton easier to play. But because they are so deep, Eastgate gets put in these super challenging situations and durrrr, being the sicko he is, knows just how much pressure he can apply.

After Eastgate folds, Barry agonizes before finally mucking his overpair. Again, you cannot really fault Barry for this fold as durrrr is repping so much strength. But the factor that can push this to a call is that Barry is not quite as deep as Peter Eastgate.

Barry has what looks to be around $230,000ish and Barry's hand is exactly what it looks like. Even the most novice of hand readers can tell that Barry's hand is faceup after this action. He has an overpair, probably aces or kings.

Now although even an amateur could read Barry's hand, it takes a real pro to have the stones to bluff into seven people and continue on the turn.

durrrr is that pro and Barry should know that, and thus should know that when his hand is as faceup as it is, durrrr has the potential to recognize this and bluff him off of it.

Peter Eastgate
No regrets in life, other than buying in 600BB deep.

Which means you get into a leveling war of he knows that I know that he knows and he should be thinking just high enough to know that durrrr knows his hand and can thus bluff him off it, which could turn this from a fold to a call/shove. Unfortunately for the Bear, Barry does not summon up a call, and his aces hit the muck.

All in all another sick hand from HSP, which constantly shows why it is the best poker show on the air. Great play by durrrr knowing exactly where he is in the hand and exactly what can get his opponents to fold.

He is so sure that after the hand when Eli says, "Barry folded the best hand," durrrr insta-replies, "No; Peter folded the best hand," and books a $2,000 wager with Doyle on it.

A great read and a great bluff pay off to the tune of $133,500 for Tom Dwan.

Oh, and a P.S.: It's kind of funny to read in the forums that Eastgate's fold is being picked apart but Barry's isn't as much. When you actually think about the hand, 4 2 is really exactly the same as A A.

He doesn't beat any deuces or a full house, so it's exactly the same as Barry's hand, a bluff catcher, and since Eastgate and durrrr both have $400kish behind, Eastgate's fold makes a lot more sense.

To read Eastgate's explanation of the hand, check out our interview with the WSOP Main Event champ here.

More Strategy Snapshots:

Comments

14

  1. Karl

    2010-04-07

    Barry's raise pre flop was not high enough to send those marginal hands packing.

  2. SwissAce

    2009-07-05

    Nice comments. Intelligent ones too. But at the end i agree with EricA. :-)

  3. EricA

    2009-03-15

    @ Poker_playa - Your advice is great. You realy say Barry should call (with a worse hand than Peter had) because of he had less to lose ? My advice would be Peter should call with a hand that Dwans range has crushed an win his stack.

  4. EricA

    2009-03-15

    I think the hand shows only one thing. Dwan is the only player in the hand that is comfortable with throwing hundreds of thousends of dollars around the table. He knows it and therefore he won the hand.
    Eastgate is a joke calling two bets and folding the turn and Barry is so scared to lose so next time he will fold his aces preflop because of Tom smiles.
    Dwan won because his opponents are weak, sitting on scared money - not because of superior play.

  5. Junglecat03

    2009-03-14

    This is great analysis imo and corresponds very closely with many top players' analyses of these situations.

    durrrr's bet on the turn shows incredible imagination and hand reading ability. Eastgate's trips are virtually face up and Dwan recognised he wouldn't want to stack off 500k with weak trips, which would have been the case had he called the turn bet.

    As regards Greenstein's fold, Barry wasn't sure about the hand so spoke to a few of his freinds about the hand later. Apparently Ivey told him he would have done exactly the same.

    Anyway top notch article.

  6. SnakeEyes

    2009-03-13

    Quality Read - Good job

  7. bruechips

    2009-03-12

    Nice summary. I think the reason that Barry's fold is worse than Peter's is that Barry has $300k less to start the hand, and he closes out the action.

    I don't really agree that Barry has to call the $27k on the flop...he's pretty obviously beat or going to get outplayed on the turn.

    I did my own writeup here if you want to check it out:

    http://spritpot.blogspot.com/2009/03/high-stakes-poker-season-5-recap.html

  8. PhishLiP

    2009-03-12

    Agree with Poker playa with regards to the position that Peter was in, hence he should fold. Peter got himself into unknown territory. 1st, he bought in too much, allowing Dwan to make that move. My opinion is never buy in the most on the table if u dun think you are the best on the table..
    2nd, flat-calling the flop bet does show an enormous strength, but with Dwan betting out again on the turn, AND Barry behind him, he has to either check/fold or check-raise all in. His kicker being a 4 makes it easier for him to fold than to CR AI.
    Now, if u guys had listened to Barry's explanation on this hand in his blog, he mentioned a super high level analysis which he did not think of during the hand.
    He believed the only mistake he made in this hand is that he didn't CHECK THE SUIT OF HIS ACES. The fact that there is a chance that Dwan called with A2, but def. only suited, the only suited A2 to have in Dwan's hand is A2 hearts and A2 diamonds. If Dwan had A2 diamonds, his turn bet would be smaller. Only other hand is A2 hearts, which Barry realises if he had checked his AA, he would know Dwan does not have A2 hearts.
    Great hand, great article here.
    Cheers

  9. Poker_playa

    2009-03-12

    I agree, great analysis.

    And about Barry's fold... i would say that it's more likely for Barry to call this, then to Peter. Two reasons: First, he have less to lose, only 150k more, but he can win 250k if he move all in. And second: when you think about hand, Peter called 37k on flop, after raise and re-raise, it is obvious that peter have at least weak 2, so why did barry called behind? To see another Ace? If he didn't call there, peter would bet the turn for sure, and most probably win the hand right there... But now he must check the turn, and fold after durrr's bet, not just because durrr, also barry is big trouble for him now. So he fold. And now there is Barry's turn to act. If he thinks, he must put peter on weak 2, so it's smaller chance for durrr to have one, and also durrr will most possibly reraise pre flop with tens, so barry here have a lot more reasons to call then peter...

    But at the end, you must say that Durrr's play is amassing, and both Barry and Peter should fold, and most of the pro's will...

  10. Word

    2009-03-11

    This is an excellent analysis.

  11. _FullFlushles_

    2009-03-11

    Great snapshot!

    Re: David Wood

    You don't think Dwan's range is fairly wide in that spot? I mean it's durrrr we're talking about!

  12. Tanuccio

    2009-03-11

    Ok, this is probably one of the best Strategy snapshots I've read... PERIOD.

    Dwan is Dwan he can call with ANYTHING... bet bet bet and eventually people will fold.

    I don't see how eastgate can fold... seriously, this guy looks outclassed every time.

    Barry?? well actually I don't know, I think if eastgate calls the turn bet I can see him folding but against Dwan you have to put him on 10-10 to fold aces, sure he may have called with 2-2 or A-2 but if dwan has 2 I figure he plays this hand differently.

    IMHO

  13. David Wood

    2009-03-11

    I think the final point in the article about nobody criticising Barry's play is interesting. Dwan calls the initial bet with 6 people behind him so how could he have a 2 unless he had 2-2? Sure he plays a wide range but a 2? A2 suited a slim possibility but even he would likely put that down with 6 players behind him. I think this is spot on about Eastgate having bought in too high, but here I think Barry's made a mistake by not calling this obvious (to me) 10. He could have imagined A-10 in Dwan's hand. I would have. And agreed about this being the TV poker ever. I could watch it for hours, and it's good to have a decent commentator for a change, in Gabe Kaplan.

  14. Sean Lind

    2009-03-11

    Although I don't outright disagree with this article, I don't entirely agree with it either. Dwan is by far one of the most aggressive, widest ranged players in the world. He's not only capable, but commonly double and triple barrel bluffs. The amount of money he's playing for on HSP isn't nearly as valuable to him as it is to some other players in the game.

    For this reason, I 100% agree with the thought that Eastgate should have min bought into the game for $200k.

    But I also feel that you have to put Dwan's range here heavily weighted towards a bluff.

    Eastgate only has to worry about a two, and pocket tens. If durrrr has the two, it's the case two, making that option even more unlikely.

    Although I'm not saying it's an easy play to make, I really think that if Eastgate chooses to flat call the flop, he has to make the call on the turn, as nothing has changed with the 7. On the river Dwan will be forced to try and finish his bluff or shut down, if he bets another $300k into the pot, I still think Eastgate needs to call.

    Dwan's range is simply too wide to lay this down. After Eastgate didn't bet or raise his trip 6's Ace kick, Dwan would have to believe that he could make Eastgate fold trip deuces with a low kicker, exactly as he did. I think Dwan has a bluff here more times than he has the nuts, if that's true then Eastgate made a mistake by folding, regardless of the amount of $ in play.

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